Demand Is Holding. So Why Is Inventory Still Rising? | Murfreesboro Real Estate June 27, 2026

Every week, the Turner Victory Team tracks the Rutherford County real estate market using Tru Insights, our proprietary data engine built on live Realtracs MLS data. This week's numbers raised a question that every buyer and seller in Murfreesboro needs to understand: demand is still running ahead of last year, new listings are below last year's levels, so why does active inventory keep climbing to levels we have not seen in years? The answer is that pendings are up, but not up enough to absorb the homes coming to market. Rutherford County currently has 1,626 active listings, up 10% from this same point last year. Months supply sits at 3.66. The Turner Victory Team Tru Insights Market Health Score is 46, which places the market in slight buyer's market territory for the third straight week. Here are the three things the Turner Victory Team wants every buyer and seller in Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Eagleville, Christiana, Rockvale, and Lascassas to know right now. First, demand is holding but the gap versus 2023 and 2024 is real. This week's 106 pendings beat last year's 100 at the same point. But in 2024 that same week saw 125 pendings, and in 2023 it was 151. New listings have run below prior year levels all year in Rutherford County, yet inventory still climbed because buyers are not absorbing supply fast enough. The next two to three weeks will tell us whether this is a holiday week blip or the beginning of a trend. Second, nearly half of all sellers in Rutherford County never reach the closing table. According to Tru Insights data tracked by the Turner Victory Team, 45.1% of all listings over the last six months expired or were cancelled without closing. Sellers who priced correctly from day one closed in an average of 32 days and received 99.2% of their original asking price. Sellers who had to cut their price took 93 days and walked away with 94.2% of their original ask. On a $485,000 home that difference is roughly $24,000 out of pocket plus two extra months of mortgage, taxes, and carrying costs. Third, the Murfreesboro median home price of $489,900 puts the typical seller in the most builder-heavy price bracket in the county. According to Tru Insights, 37% of all active inventory in Rutherford County right now is new construction, and 104 of those homes are labeled to be built in the MLS, meaning they do not yet exist. Resale sellers at the median price are competing with builders who offer model homes, rate buydowns, and upgrade packages. Sellers who cannot compete on presentation will need to compete on price. If you are thinking about buying or selling a home in Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Eagleville, Christiana, Rockvale, or anywhere in Rutherford County, the Turner Victory Team is here to help you make a decision based on real data, not guesses. Reach out at 615-586-0900 or visit turnervictory.com. John Turner is the creator of Tru Insights and Tru Probability, the proprietary analytics tools the Turner Victory Team uses to track market conditions and pricing accuracy across Middle Tennessee. The Turner Victory Team is ranked No. 13 in Tennessee by transaction sides and No. 15 by sales volume among large teams by RealTrends Verified 2026. Turner Victory Team | Onward Real Estate Phone: 615-586-0900 Website: https://turnervictory.com Market Data: https://turnervictory.com/market-data... YouTube:    / @turnervictoryteam   Facebook:   / turnervictoryteam   Instagram:   / turner_victory_team   LinkedIn:   / johnturnerrealtor   CHAPTERS 0:00 Three things every buyer and seller needs to know 0:45 Demand is holding but is it enough? 1:30 Nearly half of all sellers never reach the closing table 2:15 Murfreesboro median price and new construction competition 3:30 Market Health Score 46 and what it means 4:15 Active inventory at 1,626 up 10% from last year 4:45 Mortgage rates at 6.49% and inflation signals 5:30 Weekly activity by price range and months supply 6:30 Active inventory chart vs prior years 7:30 New listings orange line below prior years all year 8:15 Weekly pendings and the 2023 and 2024 gap 9:30 104 to be built homes and ghost inventory explained 10:30 The 45.1% listing failure rate and 90 day penalty 11:30 Showing activity and what it signals for sellers 12:30 Your seller window the next three to five weeks 13:15 Recap and closing