PESQUISA PRESIDENCIAL MEIO/IDEIA: LULA TEM 52,9% DOS VOTOS VÁLIDOS E FLÁVIO TEM 47,1% EM 2º TURNO

The latest round of the Meio/Ideia poll confirms a trend that is beginning to solidify in the 2026 election environment: President Lula appears as the favorite for reelection, leads in the first round, wins second-round simulations, and, above all, benefits from a situation in which the Bolsonaro opposition faces wear and tear, fragmentation, and difficulty in expanding its base beyond its most loyal electorate. The survey, conducted between May 23 and 27, 2026, interviewed 1,500 voters by telephone, has a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points, and a confidence level of 95%. The survey is registered with the TSE under protocol BR-02918/2026-BRASIL. In the main first-round scenario, Lula appears with 38.5%, against 31.5% for Flávio Bolsonaro. Ronaldo Caiado registers 5.5%, Romeu Zema has 2.4%, and Renan Santos appears with 2.1%. Blank, null, and undecided votes still represent a significant portion of the electorate, preventing any interpretation of the election as decided. Lula's advantage in the first round is politically relevant because it reveals two simultaneous dimensions. The first is the president's structural strength as a candidate for reelection. Even facing high rejection rates and a still-pressured government approval rating, Lula maintains a robust electoral base and leads in all tested scenarios. The second is Flávio Bolsonaro's difficulty in transforming the political capital of Bolsonarism into an electoral majority. He appears competitive, but cannot surpass Lula either in the first round or in a direct confrontation. When valid votes are estimated in the first round, Lula reaches approximately 45.6%, while Flávio Bolsonaro reaches about 37.3%. This conversion is important because it shows that the president is approaching a competitive level for a majoritarian election, but still remains below the line necessary for a first-round victory. Therefore, the poll indicates favoritism, but not absolute hegemony. The strongest data appears in the second round. In a direct contest between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, the president scores 46.5%, against 41.4% for the senator. Excluding blank, null, and undecided votes, the estimated score in valid votes is around 52.9% for Lula and 47.1% for Flávio. This result places Lula above the majority of valid votes in the direct confrontation and supports the interpretation that, if the election were held today, he would be the best-positioned candidate to win. However, the poll also requires analytical caution. The nominal difference of 5.1 points in the second round is significant from a political standpoint, but the race remains competitive. Flávio Bolsonaro does not appear structurally defeated. He retains a significant electoral bloc, exceeding 40% in the simulated second-round scenario, which confirms the persistence of intense polarization. The election, therefore, does not appear to be a walk in the park for the government, but a tough contest, with Lula at an advantage. The current situation helps explain this movement. The case involving Flávio Bolsonaro, Daniel Vorcaro, and Banco Master appears to be a damaging factor for the senator. The survey shows that a significant portion of the electorate became aware of the episode, and 44% of those interviewed now have a worse opinion of Flávio after the case. Furthermore, 57% believe the episode is likely to harm his campaign, including those who believe it will harm him significantly or somewhat. This data is crucial because it directly impacts Flávio's strategy. To defeat Lula, the senator needs to keep the Bolsonaro electorate mobilized, reduce rejection, attract the center-right, engage with higher-income sectors, and diminish resistance among young and moderate voters. The survey suggests the opposite: the episode increases the reputational cost of his candidacy and hinders expansion beyond the hard-core right wing. At the same time, the evaluation of Lula's government remains ambiguous. The "excellent/good" rating reaches 35.6%, while the "bad/terrible" rating totals 40.7%. In terms of personal approval, 46.6% approve of how Lula is conducting his work as president, but 51.4% disapprove. This contrast shows that Lula leads more due to a concrete electoral comparison with his opponents than due to a broadly comfortable approval rating of his government. This is the key to the current situation: Lula has rejection rates, but his opponents also have limitations. Flávio Bolsonaro concentrates the right-wing vote, but carries the weight of his surname, the wear and tear of Bolsonarism, and now a politically sensitive case. Michelle Bolsonaro appears as a competitive name, but still below Lula. Caiado, Zema, Tereza Cristina, and Renan Santos have not demonstrated, so far, sufficient strength to reorganize the dispute around a viable national conservative third way. #HalfIdeaPoll #Elections2026 #Lula2026 #FlávioBolsonaro #ElectionPoll #SecondRound #ValidVotes #PoliticalContext #NationalPo...