PESQUISA BTG/NEXUS: LULA LIDERA O 1º TURNO, MAS 2º TURNO COM FLÁVIO BOLSONARO SE APROXIMA

The fifth round of the BTG/Nexus poll, conducted between June 26 and 28, 2026, confirms a central trend in the current Brazilian electoral landscape: Lula maintains his lead in the presidential race, but the second-round scenario against Flávio Bolsonaro has become more competitive. The survey interviewed 2,009 voters by telephone, with a declared margin of error of two percentage points and a 95% confidence level. In the simulated first-round scenario, Lula appears with 42% of the voting intentions, compared to 34% for Flávio Bolsonaro. Ronaldo Caiado totals 5%, Renan Santos 4%, and Romeu Zema 3%, while the other candidates remain at residual levels. When blank, null, and undecided votes are removed, the arithmetic estimate of valid votes places Lula at approximately 45.7% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 37%. The most relevant data point is that Lula leads comfortably, but still hasn't reached the 50% of valid votes needed to win the election in the first round. The poll, therefore, reinforces the hypothesis of a second round as the most likely outcome. The spontaneous vote offers another important element. Lula appears with 38%, against 27% for Flávio Bolsonaro. The 11-point difference shows greater consolidation of the president's electoral memory, while the 20% who still don't indicate a name reveal that there is room for dispute, mobilization, and a change of preference until October. In the second round between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, the score is 47% to 44%. Compared to the previous round, Lula falls from 49% to 47%, while Flávio rises from 43% to 44%. As the three-point difference is within the declared margin of error, it would not be technically correct to treat the result as a statistically consolidated advantage. The data points to an open race, with Lula holding a numerical lead, but in a zone of fierce competition. Lula's strength remains concentrated among women, the elderly, lower-income voters, beneficiaries of social programs, Catholics, Northeasterners, and segments outside the formal labor market. Flávio Bolsonaro performs better among men, young people, evangelicals, middle- and upper-income voters, formal workers, and residents of the South. Electoral geography remains decisive: Lula wins by a wide margin in the Northeast, while Flávio strengthens in the South and the North/Central-West. The survey also shows that rejection continues to be a structural problem for both poles. Lula has a potential vote share of 50% and a rejection rate of 49%; Flávio Bolsonaro has a potential vote share of 46% and a rejection rate of 51%. This reveals a highly polarized electorate, in which the ability to reduce resistance may be more important than expanding the loyalty of already consolidated bases. There is also a strategic piece of data: 21% of those interviewed would prefer a candidate who is not supported by either Lula or Bolsonaro. However, no name from the so-called third way manages to approach both poles in the first round. Caiado, Zema, and Renan Santos share a real political space, but it is still fragmented and insufficient to threaten the main polarization. The evaluation of Lula's government helps explain the contradictory nature of the scenario. The government registers 38% excellent or good and 42% bad or terrible, while approval and disapproval appear tied at 48%. Even in this divided environment, Lula maintains electoral leadership because he maintains a strong connection with popular sectors, the elderly, women, and voters who see a risk in the return of Bolsonarism. The opposition, in turn, finds a favorable agenda. Public security, health, and corruption appear as the main national problems. In addition, 51% rate the country's economy as bad or terrible. Flávio Bolsonaro's challenge is to transform widespread dissatisfaction into an electoral majority, especially among moderate voters, those who are not polarized, and those who would currently vote blank, null, or have not yet decided on a candidate. The BTG/Nexus poll does not project the election result. It captures a snapshot of the moment. But the snapshot is clear: Lula remains ahead in the first round, a second round is still likely, and the contest against Flávio Bolsonaro has entered a phase of greater competitive tension. #BTGNexusPoll #Elections2026 #Lula #FlávioBolsonaro #ElectoralPoll #ElectoralAnalysis #SecondRound #BrazilianPolitics #VotingIntention #ElectoralScenario