PESQUISA INDEXA 2026: LULA ABRE 11 PONTOS NO 1º TURNO E 7 NO 2º; ENTENDA O QUE OS DADOS REVELAM

The second round of the Indexa poll for the 2026 presidential election reinforces a scenario of consolidated polarization, with Lula holding a numerical advantage over Flávio Bolsonaro in the main segments released. The survey, registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number BR-08944/2026, was conducted between June 18th and 20th, interviewed 2,000 voters by telephone, and declares a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. The registration indicates a national quantitative survey, with a stratified sample across the five major regions, two-stage selection, and weighting by sex, age, education, income, and location. This methodological structure seeks to align the sample with the profile of the Brazilian electorate. Even so, a technical interpretation requires caution: telephone surveys depend on the quality and coverage of the contact base, the response rate, and the weighting criteria adopted. Furthermore, the national margin of error should not be automatically transferred to regional, ideological, or other subgroup segments. In a simulated first-round scenario, Lula appears with 42% of the voting intentions, compared to 31% for Flávio Bolsonaro. Ronaldo Caiado registers 5%, while Romeu Zema and Renan Santos appear with 3% each. The distance between the two main names is 11 percentage points, showing that the dispute remains concentrated between the Lula and Bolsonaro camps, while alternative candidacies continue to fail to demonstrate the capacity to break the bipolar logic of the election. Excluding blank, null, and undecided votes, the arithmetic conversion of the data points to Lula with 48.8% of the estimated valid votes, against 36.0% for Flávio Bolsonaro. This calculation does not constitute an electoral projection, but it allows us to identify that, in the current picture, Lula is approaching an absolute majority without exceeding the 50% plus one of the valid votes necessary for a first-round victory. In the second round, the scenario between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro registers 47% to 40%, a nominal advantage of seven points. In the static conversion to estimated valid votes, Lula reaches 54.0%, against Flávio's 46.0%. The picture is favorable to the president, but still describes a competitive race, marked by high rejection rates and strong loyalty from both electorates. Compared to the May round, Lula went from 39% to 42% in the first round, while Flávio fluctuated from 30% to 31%. In the second round, Lula went from 46% to 47%, and Flávio fell from 41% to 40%. Lula's advantage, therefore, increased from nine to 11 points in the first round and from five to seven points in the second. The variations indicate a movement favorable to Lula, but should be classified as fluctuations within the range of statistical stability, and not as a definitive trend in themselves. The survey also shows a relatively decided electorate. Sixty-seven percent say they have already decided how to vote and do not intend to change their position, while 25% admit they might reconsider their choice. Among Lula's voters, 81% say they are decided; among Flávio's, the rate is 74%. This difference suggests greater declared rigidity among Lula's electorate, although the campaign still has room for competition among undecided voters, mobile voters, and segments with less party identification. Rejection, on the other hand, reveals the limit of expansion of both poles: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro appear with 49% each. This data explains why the election tends to remain competitive even with Lula's current lead. Both have highly mobilized bases, but also face significant resistance outside their respective camps. The ideological breakdowns help to understand the nature of the contest. Flávio concentrates 97% of preferences among Bolsonaro supporters and 80% among non-Bolsonaro right-wing voters. Lula gathers 99% among Lula supporters and PT members, as well as 97% among non-Lula left-wing voters. The poll therefore registers an election marked by very consolidated political identities, with little room for spontaneous migration among the most ideologically driven groups. Regionally, Lula presents the best results reported in the Northeast, with 57%, and in the North, with 52%. Flávio Bolsonaro appears more competitive in the South, where he registers 47%, in addition to 44% in the Southeast and 43% in the Midwest. These numbers help to visualize the priority territories for each candidacy, but should be interpreted with caution, as the regional breakdowns have smaller samples and, consequently, greater statistical uncertainty. #IndexaResearch #Elections2026 #Lula #FlavioBolsonaro #ElectionPoll #VotingIntention #ElectionScenario #BrazilianPolitics #SecondRound #PoliticalAnalysis