Austin Real Estate Market Recovery Confirmed: Median Up 4.8%, Pendings Up 4.6% | May 18, 2026

The Austin real estate market is showing its third consecutive month of outperformance against 2025 across both leading and lagging indicators. In this Monday Touch Point, broker Dan Price walks through the data behind the recovery call, the rate pressure pushing toward 7%, the zip-code-level breakdowns separating hot from cold markets, the luxury tier that is pulling the median up, and the practical playbook for agents, buyers, sellers, and investors working this market right now. Whether you are a licensed agent, a buyer trying to time a purchase, a seller weighing whether to list, or an investor looking for entry points in the Austin metro, this update is built on the same data Dan uses with his own clients and his own brokerage every Monday morning. https://teamprice.com/monday-touch-po... ✅ Topics covered in this update: ✅ Ten-year Treasury, CPI, PPI, and the rate outlook for the week ✅ NAHB Housing Market Index and builder traffic data ✅ New construction pipeline conditions across Austin submarkets ✅ New listing-to-pending ratio at 0.58 and the twelve-week streak ✅ Activity index breakdown across cities and zip codes ✅ Months of inventory at 5.86, down 3.9% YoY ✅ Price tier analysis and where buyer activity stops ✅ Top quartile gain of 7.1% and the luxury tier story ✅ Market Flow Score of 4.76 and what it tells us ✅ Six cities positive YoY, twenty-three negative, and what that means Timestamps 0:00:00 – Good Morning From Austin: Chicago Weekend and a Wild Welcome Home 0:01:53 – Ten-Year Treasury, CPI, PPI: Why Rates Are Pushing Toward Seven Percent 0:03:33 – The Week Ahead: FOMC Minutes, Bond Auction, Housing Starts, Jobless Claims 0:04:33 – NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Traffic Up to 25, Beating 2025 0:06:20 – New Construction Pipeline at Two-to-Three Year Low: Less Buyer Leverage 0:08:08 – Hyperlocal Reality: Why 78613 and 78721 Are Two Different Markets 0:13:29 – New Listing-to-Pending Ratio: Twelve Straight Weeks Outperforming 2025 0:18:00 – New Listings Down YoY: The Inventory Story Under the Headline 0:23:32 – Pendings Have Peaked: Seasonal Pullback Plus the Rate Effect 0:26:21 – Activity Index: Zero Cities Over 30%, Resale Flirting With the Danger Line 0:27:16 – 78747 Case Study: A 30% Drop From Peak and What It Means 0:34:18 – Price Tier Breakdown: Where the Market Stops Cold 0:37:54 – Closings, Population-Adjusted Sales, Per-Realtor Productivity Up 10.2% 0:40:38 – Top Quartile Up 7.1%, Wimberley Up 20.1%: The Luxury Tier Story 0:43:30 – Market Flow Score 4.76: Recovery Market Classification Closing In 0:49:02 – Wednesday Power Hour, Contract Proficiency Due May 20, and Closing Notes