USA-IRAN: TRUMP CERCA LA VITTORIA NARRATIVA, MA HORMUZ PRESENTA IL CONTO | SHERIF EL SEBAIE

On IlSussidiario.tv, Sherif El Sebaie, a commentator and expert on cultural diplomacy and Middle Eastern dynamics, analyzes the escalation between the United States and Iran, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, and Donald Trump's potential "narrative victory." 00:00 Introduction: The war in Iran and possible escalation scenarios 01:54 Trump: threats, negotiations, and the risk of direct confrontation 04:12 The Strait of Hormuz: transit, risks, and economic consequences 07:21 Midterm elections and the possibility of a US-Iran agreement 10:26 Conclusions: American military resources and the risk of a multi-front war During the interview, El Sebaie examines the risk of further escalation between the United States and Iran. A large-scale US attack, he notes, would target missile sites, drones, and the military infrastructure of the Pasdaran. The real breakthrough would be achieved, however, if civilian targets were hit, with the risk of triggering "a dynamic of retaliation" that would be difficult to control. According to El Sebaie, Donald Trump's rhetoric is often used as a negotiating tool. This time, however, US involvement and the costs already incurred make the risk of direct confrontation more concrete. A last-minute agreement, facilitated by mediation by Oman, Pakistan, or Qatar, remains possible. Ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz has not been completely interrupted, but commercial traffic remains limited, selective, and characterized by a high level of risk. Mines, drones, and explosive vessels could prompt shipping companies and insurers to suspend or limit transit. A prolonged closure of the strait would increase oil prices and inflation, with negative consequences for the US economy as well. For Trump, a possible way out could be a partial agreement: the verifiable reopening of sea lanes, the cessation of Iranian attacks on US bases and US attacks on Iranian installations, and the initiation of negotiations on Tehran's missile and nuclear programs. This would not be a military victory, but rather a "narrative victory." The United States remains a superpower, but must distribute its resources between the Iranian, Ukrainian, and Indo-Pacific dossiers. For more information: https://www.ilsussidiario.net/ #Iran #DonaldTrump #StraitofHormuz #UnitedStates #MiddleEast #Geopolitics