Продажи новостроек рекордно низкие: разбор рынка от ЕРЗ

The new construction market enters 2026 with record low sales under equity participation agreements (EPAs) and a growing backlog of unsold housing. For developers, this is a direct blow to the economics of their projects: financing, competition, and pricing rules are changing. This issue of ERZ-Trends features market analysis from the "Movement" forum. What we're examining: Why market mortgages have revived (45%), while family mortgages are shrinking How the ratio of escrow to project financing is falling from 71% to 64% Why sales under equity participation agreements could reach an all-time low Where did the backlog of 303,000 to 429,000 apartments come from, and why is it worth approximately 5 trillion rubles? Why existing housing will begin to compete with housing under construction What's really behind the "price rise" in new buildings? Speaker: Kirill Kholopik, head of the developer ecosystem at ERZ, speaking at the "Movement" forum in the "Market Trends" session. Timecodes: 00:00:18 — Macroeconomics: GDP near zero, inflation at 8.3%, what's happening with the labor market? 00:02:01 — The share of market mortgages has reached 45%—a level unseen for a long time. 00:03:40 — Why has equity in escrow increased to 60%? 00:07:55 — Sales forecast for shared construction agreements: 20 million sq. m. m — a record low 00:10:00 — "The share of unsold housing will increase sharply" 00:12:00 — Supply overhang: 303 → 429 thousand apartments (≈ 5 trillion rubles) 00:13:20 — Why prices are rising, although they are stagnant in every class 👍 Like and subscribe to the ERZ channel.