ЦБ ошибается? Почему доллар может остаться по 80, а длинные ОФЗ принесут до 30%

Moderator: Oleg Kuzmichev - Analyst at Mozgovik Research Speaker: Viktor Tunev - Economist, Analyst, and Author of the TrueValue Telegram Channel What's really happening with the Russian economy? Why might a high key rate prove not to be a cure, but a source of new imbalances? When can we expect a rate cut, and what will happen to the ruble, the budget, real estate, stocks, and bonds? In this interview, Oleg Kuzmichev and Viktor Tunev examine the macroeconomic situation in detail, explain why long-term OFZs could be one of the best investment ideas for the coming years, and also provide a forecast for the dollar exchange rate and the prospects for the Russian stock market. In the video, you'll learn: • Why the Central Bank has been failing to achieve its inflation target for several years. • When the key rate could fall to 10-12%. • Why the ruble is likely to hold around 80 to the dollar. • What's happening with the budget and the banking sector. • Is there a chance to earn 20-30% on long-term bonds? • Why the stock market bottom may be just around the corner? Speaker presentations, free lectures on investing, and other bonuses here: https://t.me/mozgovikbot 00:00 Introduction and macroeconomics 01:00 Is the economy falling or is everything under control? 02:14 Why Viktor Tunev disputes the Central Bank's policy 02:43 What is the real key rate 03:43 Why inflation hasn't been contained for five years 05:23 What will the key rate reduction be like 07:48 The budget deficit has grown to 6 trillion rubles 09:53 How the state will finance the deficit 11:29 Who is buying OFZs today 12:46 Why long-term OFZs look attractive 14:10 How to earn up to 30% on long-term bonds 16:12 Ruble exchange rate forecast for the next three years 17:56 How the budget rule restrains the dollar 19:33 Foreign currency bonds or ruble bonds – which to choose? 21:29 Why private investors are losing in the stock market 23:11 Record bank profits – what does this mean? 23:37 The main imbalances in the Russian economy 24:31 Why banks are getting richer, while businesses are losing profits 25:30 When will the Central Bank be able to cut rates faster? 26:27 What awaits the banking sector in the long term? 27:11 Unusual lending growth – are there any risks? 28:12 Why real estate prices continue to rise 29:34 Where are the best opportunities now: stocks or long-term OFZs? #stocks #bonds #dollar #smartlab