The U.S. and Iran: Deal, Deadlock or Discord?

Three months after the U.S. and Israel went to war with Iran, and six weeks after an uneasy ceasefire took effect, Washington and Tehran remain poised between a potential return to hostilities and a possible agreement. President Donald Trump’s remarks over the weekend suggest a deal may be possible, though nothing has been confirmed. While the guns have largely stayed silent, confrontation has shifted to the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran’s selective closure of the waterway and the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports grind on. The standoff has also kept tensions high across the Gulf, with reported drone and missile incidents affecting Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. U.S.-Iran negotiations continue, as yet inconclusively. Washington, confident that its military superiority can compel concessions, insists on addressing the nuclear file up front along with a restoration of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran, betting on its resilience and short-term leverage, argues that the war must end, the blockade must be lifted, the strait must reopen under its authority and it must get a degree of economic relief before substantive nuclear talks can begin. Israel, while closely coordinating with the U.S., is wary of any concessions to Iran and stands ready to resume strikes. Neither Washington nor Tehran has abandoned diplomacy yet, but as long as these gaps remain between the two sides, and each believes itself to have a strong hand, a return to full-scale war remains a possibility. In this online event, Crisis Group brings together leading experts to examine the question likely to define the next phase of the conflict: can diplomacy succeed, or will President Trump opt to resume the fighting? Panellists: Danny Citrinowicz | Senior Researcher, The Institute for National Security Studies Dana Stroul | Director of Research, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy Ali Vaez | Project Director, Iran, Crisis Group Moderator: Naysan Rafati | Senior Analyst, Iran, Crisis Group #iran ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Subscribe to our channel:    / @crisisgroup   And find us on Twitter:   / crisisgroup   Facebook:   / crisisgroup   LinkedIn:   / international-crisis-group   And Instagram:   / crisisgroup