S&P 500 к 2026: рост или ловушка? Техника, бизнес-цикл США, ISM и сценарии доходности

Telegram is our main hub: https://t.me/+cuXHVSYyZ6tiODAy Need a portfolio audit or private advisory for $300K–$1M+? Message us on Telegram. 👉 How we work: Application → 20-minute Discovery Call → Risk Profile Questionnaire → Portfolio Audit (45–60 min, $500) → Customized strategy and plan for 3–6 months with a focus on Quality Investing and return per unit of risk. Timecodes: 0:00 Introduction: US Macro Video Target and S&P 500 Tech 0:52 Volatile Week: Start of Reports: US Banks and Optimism 1:43 S&P 500 Chart: Support, Resistance, Buybacks, Falls 2:46 US-China Tariffs: Institutional Reactions 3:35 VIX: Rising Volatility: What Portfolio Managers Are Doing 4:41 US Macro Business Cycle: Fidelity Expansion 5:49 Why Not a Recession: GDP Trend and Reports 7:14 Tech: Positive Again: Buyback Tails, Volumes (Daily) 8:59 Put/Call Ratio: Coincident Indicator Confirms Optimism 11:44 US GDP: 2-3%: How the Market Reads It Quarterly 12:24 Velocity M2: Cash Turnover: Health Marker 14:33 Unemployment: 4-5% Postponement of Publications and Trend 15:48 Unemployment 16–24 Sensitive Categories 16:35 African-American Trend and Impact on Demand 17:24 Inventories/Sales Overall Level (Total Business) 18:39 Retail Inventories to Sales Final Demand Chain 19:32 Wholesalers Dynamics and Logistics 20:31 Manufacturers Trend and Interpretation 21:11 ISM Leading Indicators 6–12 Month Lag 23:05 ISM Manufacturing 49–49.1 New Orders Employment Conclusions 26:11 ISM Services 50–52 Business Activity and New Orders 27:58 PMI Comparison: Manufacturing vs. Services Cooling Without Collapse 29:31 Investor Practice: 3–5 Year Strategy Entry Points 31:44 Correction of -10–15% is Normal: Cash Reserves and Plan 32:53 What to Buy: Funds/Sectors vs. Stocks, Taxes Dividends 33:51 Macro Drivers Summary and Emotion-Free Decisions 35:39 Announcement of the Next Video: Magnificent 7 and Institutional Shares S&P 500 by 2026: Growth or Trap? In this video, I analyze what really moves the market—from technical to macro—and where investors can find returns without delusions. In simple terms and with specific indicators. What we'll cover in this video: • S&P 500 Technical Analysis. We'll review and analyze the current situation for the week and understand why there's optimism in the US stock market (technical and volume analysis). • US Business Cycle. Where the US economy currently sits on the business cycle curve and why this confirms positive sentiment for the S&P 500 market and investors. • Macro overview of US indicators. GDP, leading indicators, ISM PMI, NMI, market expectations: US CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio and what it means. • Converging economic indicators. Unemployment rate and Inventories/Sales: how the indicator confirms a stable US economy in 2025. • S&P 500 return expectations by 2026: my expectations for the end of 2025 and into 2026. If you're an investor who wants to understand market logic (not headlines), this video will save you time and money. Subscribe, give it a 👍, and comment on which indicator you think will be the main driver of the S&P 500 by 2026. We'll explore the most interesting cases on the channel. --- We look forward to welcoming you to the investor community! Subscribe to the IQ Smart Capital investing channel and turn on notifications to stay up-to-date on new stock reviews and investment strategies in the US market. We take a strictly professional approach to investing! For questions about portfolio management and where to invest, please ask in the comments or via Direct. Would you like private portfolio management ($300K–$1M+)? Submit a request—we'll conduct a 45-60-minute portfolio audit and provide a customized investment strategy with a 3-6-month action plan! Disclaimer: This video is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Make your own decisions based on your risk profile, financial situation, tax jurisdiction, and other circumstances! #SP500 #S&P500 #SPX #StockMarket #Investments #Macroeconomics #USA #ISM #PMI #GDP #Unemployment #InventoriesToSales #VIX #RiskManagement #PortfolioStrategy #Correction #BullMarket #ETF #USAStocks #IQSmartCapital