코스피 7,500 지킬 수 있을까? '이 선' 깨지면 위험합니다ㅣ이상연 신영증권 연구원, 권미정 캐스터, 이담교 캐스터

, 📉 Samsung Electronics Plunges Despite Strong Earnings… Is the Semiconductor Era Over? The Real Reason the Market Is Shaking Right Now 📈 Key Summary of Today's Stock Market ✔ Samsung Electronics' Q2 Preliminary Earnings Exceed Market Expectations ✔ However, Profit-taking Selling Explodes Immediately After Earnings Announcement ✔ Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix Plummet by Over 10% During Trading ✔ KOSPI Triggers 6th Circuit Breaker of the Year ✔ Entertainment, Cosmetics, and Food & Beverage Sectors Strong Amid Semiconductor Correction 🔍 Summary of Key Points 1️⃣ Why Did Samsung Electronics' Stock Price Plunge Despite Good Earnings? Samsung Electronics' preliminary Q2 earnings exceeded market expectations. However, high expectations were already reflected in the stock price, and profit-taking selling pressure intensified following the "end of the event play" after the earnings announcement. ✔ Earnings Were Strong ✔ Expectations Were Higher ✔ Profit-taking Amplifies Market Shock Experts assessed that the current stock price reaction is, in a sense, excessive. 2️⃣ KOSPI Plunges… Why the 60-Day Moving Average Is Important The KOSPI fell sharply during the trading session, triggering the sixth circuit breaker this year. In particular, volatility has significantly increased over the past month. Key Checkpoints ✔ Whether the 60-day moving average holds ✔ Possibility of increased volatility if support fails ✔ Consider adjusting investment weighting in the short term Technically, analysts believe the market has entered a critical turning point. 3️⃣ Is the Semiconductor Market Really Peaking Out? The market continues to debate whether the semiconductor industry is peaking out, citing reasons such as: ✔ Slowing rise in memory prices ✔ Concerns over declining AI investment ✔ Possibility of Big Tech reducing capital expenditures (CAPEX) However, experts hold a somewhat different view. ✔ Memory prices remain on the rise ✔ HBM demand is robust ✔ Earnings consensus continues to be revised upward In other words, they argue that slowing growth rates and slowing market conditions are two different things. 4️⃣ Are Concerns Over Declining Big Tech Investment Excessive? While the market is concerned about the possibility of hyperscalers scaling back their AI investments, CAPEX plans disclosed so far have not decreased significantly. Rather, analysts suggest that the AI ​​investment cycle is highly likely to continue for the time being due to competition in AI infrastructure, data center expansion, and GPU acquisition. 5️⃣ It Is Not Just Semiconductors Falling Existing leading stocks—including shipbuilding, defense, nuclear power, and automobiles—are also undergoing significant corrections. This is analyzed as the result of a complex interplay of factors: profit-taking, sector rotation, and the selling of baskets of large-cap stocks. 6️⃣ There Were Strong Sectors Even in a Shaky Market Sectors that showed strength today supported stock prices, including: Entertainment Cosmetics Food & Beverage Increased K-Beauty exports Expansion of exports to the US and Europe Expectations for Samyang Foods earnings 7️⃣ US Treasury Yields Are a More Important Variable The biggest burden on the market recently is the US 10-year Treasury yield. The securities industry is concerned that if it rises above 4.5%, the profitability of investments in AI data centers may decline. In particular, analysts suggest this could lead to: ✔ rising capital financing costs, ✔ a slowdown in the pace of AI investment, and ✔ increased valuation burdens for semiconductors. 8️⃣ Could AI Actually Raise Prices? Hana Securities suggested the possibility that AI investment could raise base inflation by triggering: ✔ expanded corporate investment, ✔ increased employment, and ✔ expanded consumption. In other words, the analysis suggests that, rather than the stage where AI lowers prices by increasing productivity, the expansion of investment in the early stages could actually become a factor driving up interest rates. 9️⃣ Securities Firms Still View the Semiconductor Sector Positively Meritz Securities ✔ Better-than-expected earnings ✔ Improved memory profitability Daishin Securities ✔ Short-term corrections cannot change the overall trend KB Securities ✔ AI investment cycle sustainable until at least 2028 JP Morgan ✔ Maintains overweight opinion on Korean memory sector Bank of America ✔ Possibility of autumn rebound following summer correction Unlike the market's short-term fears, positive opinions remained dominant regarding the mid-to-long-term outlook. 🔟 Current Investment Strategy ✔ Manage volatility in the short term ✔ Need to verify the 60-day moving average ✔ Combine sector diversification strategies ✔ Be cautious with selling due to excessive fear ✔ The long-term growth story of semiconductors remains valid 🧩 Conclusion Today's market is closer to a volatile market resulting from the simul...