“도망칠 때가 아니에요” 삼전·닉스 '역대급 세일'인 이유 l 김양팽 l 정우창 l 김권진

#SamsungElectronics #SKHynix #Semiconductor ▶ 20260707 Reading the Situation: Pandora ▶ Mon-Thu 19:00 📈 Hosts: Anchor Jung Yoon-sung / Caster Lee Jung-woo 📈 Guests: ■ Kim Yang-paeng | Senior Researcher, Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade ■ Jung Woo-chang | Manager, Apgujeong WMC, NH Investment & Securities ■ Kim Kwon-jin | Deputy Manager, Digital Content Team, KB Securities 📈 Samsung Electronics Q2 Preliminary Earnings Announcement and the Battle Over the Peak (Peak-out) ✔️ Operating Profit Exploded 20-fold, Yet Why Did the Stock Price Fall? 👉 Samsung Electronics announced preliminary Q2 earnings of 89.4 trillion won, an increase of over 1,810% compared to the same period last year. Excluding issues with selling, general, and administrative expenses such as performance bonus provisions, the actual results represent a record-breaking performance exceeding 100 trillion won; however, the stock price plummeted during trading hours due to profit-taking. 👉 Department Head Jung Woo-chang: "Since market expectations were already at the upper end of analyst estimates based on Micron's earnings, this acted as a 'known positive factor' that triggered a short-term sell-on." ✔️ Analysis of the reality behind Morgan Stanley's 'Winter Is Coming' trial 👉 Morgan Stanley recommended adjusting portfolio weights, raising peak-out risks based on the slowdown in AI investment pace and the easing of the earnings slope for memory stocks. 👉 All panelists agree (Controversy over the peak is premature): Currently, the top two domestic stocks are located at the lower end of their historical average valuations and are trading at a discount of over 50% compared to their global peers. If the strong upward trend in AI CAPEX (capital expenditure) and the growth rate of arr (recurring subscription revenue) are confirmed during the earnings calls of U.S. Big Tech companies, which will kick off on July 22 starting with Alphabet, Morgan Stanley's concerns about a peak-out are expected to be completely resolved. 🔥 The Sustainability of the Global Memory Supercycle and a Supply-Demand Hell ✔️ Limitations on Manufacturer Factory Expansion, Supply Tight to Continue Until 2028 👉 Senior Research Analyst Kim Yang-paeng: "From the perspective of the semiconductor long-term supercycle (a 20-30 year trend), we are currently in a super-boom period driven by the adoption of AI." As SK Hynix's new Cheongju and Yongin fabs are not set to begin operations until after the second half of next year, there are no measures to address the short-term surge in supply, meaning the structural supply shortage is bound to be prolonged. The recent slight decline in export unit prices compared to the previous month is a temporary phenomenon resulting from a contraction in consumer consumption of general-purpose memory (for PC and mobile), and should be viewed separately from the demand in the Big Tech-led HBM market. ✔️ Supply and Demand Shackles: The 1,520 Won High Exchange Rate and Pension Fund Rebalancing 👉 Deputy General Manager Kim Kwon-jin: "We are in a 'hell phase' of supply and demand, where mechanical selling by foreign investors is occurring as the exchange rate is trapped at the 1,520 won level, and individual investors' liquidity capacity has reached its limit due to restrictions on securities firm credit loans and financial sector lending." Regarding the National Pension Service's rebalancing scheduled to resume in July, while selling pressure is already at a controllable level following preemptive adjustments, it could act as a ceiling whenever prices rise. 👉 Breakthrough: The scale of bold 'share buybacks, cancellations, and shareholder return policies' to defend against foreign selling pressure upon future earnings announcements will be the key watershed for a potential second rally. ⚡ Analysis of Sectors for Niche Rotational Trading in the Valuation Segment • SK Hynix (US NASDAQ 10 Trillion Won ADR Listing Imminent): Global investors have expressed interest in acquiring up to $7 billion of the public offering volume, signaling a positive outlook for success. Major momentum for passive fund inflows as local U.S. managers re-evaluate the value of SK Hynix (PER around 6x), which is undervalued compared to Micron (PER 7–10x). Although a target price of 2.8 million won has been suggested for Samsung Electro-Mechanics due to the possibility of an MLCC supply shortage, the underlying stock (Samsung Electronics) currently holds greater buying appeal. • K-Beauty and K-Food (Cosmetics & Food & Beverage): Completed a fundamental transformation from dependence on China to a global export enterprise. The high exchange rate (around 1,520 won) actually acts as a favorable factor, making it a reliable safe haven with solid Q2 earnings. • Banks & Financial Holdings: Key leading stocks benefiting from expanded Net Interest Margins (NIS) due to the Bank of Korea's hawkish stance (interest rate hike trend) and as a core component of ...