Longterm Strategic Thinking with Rita McGrath and Roger Dennis

In this week’s Thought Sparks Podcast episode, Rita McGrath, a Columbia University Business School Professor, C-Suite strategist, business founder and best-selling author, sits down with Roger Dennis, advisor on long term thinking and foresight and cultural transformation specialist.     00:00 Introduction   00:22 Welcome Roger Dennis   01:03 How Roger became a futurist   03:05 "Getting above strategy" explained   05:18 Current geopolitical risks & top trends to watch   07:13 Three things leaders need: capabilities, process, routines   09:44 Historical precedents for today's volatility   11:31 Example: tolls on the Strait of Hormuz/Malacca   12:35 Reversion to the mean, or a new normal?   14:19 The "Layer Player" framework   18:28 Second-order consequences & policy paradoxes   23:26 Acting under uncertainty: the Netflix story   26:15 Why you need real experts, not guesswork   28:03 The 2015 pandemic report nobody wanted   29:53 New Zealand's COVID Tracer App success story   33:08 The mindset of realistic optimism   41:58 How the music industry refused to adapt 43:38 Industries still "hanging on" today   45:02 Agentic AI and the ROI problem   46:57 From mass production to personalization   50:11 Where to learn more: The Paradox of Preparedness   55:02 Key takeaway for leaders        Listen to more Thought Sparks Podcast episodes on Apple Podcasts (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...)   and Spotify (https://open.spotify.com/show/0xmTsYX...) .   https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast... https://open.spotify.com/show/0xmTsYX...   Watch Thought Sparks episodes on YouTube (   / @rgmcgrath  ) .   https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCcyX...   Follow Rita on LinkedIn (  / ritamcgrath  ) , Instagram (  / ritamcgrath.hub  ) , X (https://x.com/rgmcgrath)  and Blue Sky (https://bsky.app/profile/rgmcgrath.bs...) .     /     https://x.com/rgmcgrath  https://bsky.app/profile/rgmcgrath.bs...   Connect with Rita on TikTok (  / rgmcgrath  )  and Instagram (  / ritamcgrath.hub  ) .    / rgmcgrath      /       Sign up for her Thought Sparks Newsletter on Substack (https://thoughtsparks.substack.com/) .    https://thoughtsparks.substack.com/    Learn more about Rita, her books and ideas at RitaMcGrath.com (http://ritamcgrath.com/) .