Longterm Strategic Thinking with Roger Dennis

In this week’s Thought Sparks Podcast episode, Rita McGrath, a Columbia University Business School Professor, C-Suite strategist, business founder and best-selling author, sits down with Roger Dennis, advisor on long term thinking and foresight and cultural transformation specialist. 00:00 Introduction 00:22 Welcome Roger Dennis 01:03 How Roger became a futurist 03:05 "Getting above strategy" explained 05:18 Current geopolitical risks & top trends to watch 07:13 Three things leaders need: capabilities, process, routines 09:44 Historical precedents for today's volatility 11:31 Example: tolls on the Strait of Hormuz/Malacca 12:35 Reversion to the mean, or a new normal? 14:19 The "Layer Player" framework 18:28 Second-order consequences & policy paradoxes 23:26 Acting under uncertainty: the Netflix story 26:15 Why you need real experts, not guesswork 28:03 The 2015 pandemic report nobody wanted 29:53 New Zealand's COVID Tracer App success story 33:08 The mindset of realistic optimism 41:58 How the music industry refused to adapt 43:38 Industries still "hanging on" today 45:02 Agentic AI and the ROI problem 46:57 From mass production to personalization 50:11 Where to learn more: The Paradox of Preparedness 55:02 Key takeaway for leaders Listen to more Thought Sparks Podcast episodes on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast... https://open.spotify.com/show/0xmTsYX... Watch Thought Sparks episodes on YouTube.    / @rgmcgrath   Follow Rita on LinkedIn, Instagram, X and Blue Sky.   / ritamcgrath   https://x.com/rgmcgrath https://bsky.app/profile/rgmcgrath.bs... Connect with Rita on TikTok and Instagram.   / rgmcgrath     / ritamcgrath.hub   Sign up for her Thought Sparks Newsletter on Substack. https://thoughtsparks.substack.com/ Learn more about Rita, her books and ideas at RitaMcGrath.com.