결국 나와버린 금리인상 가능성…연준 이사 "미국 통화 정책, 갈림길에 서" [지금이뉴스] / YTN

Christopher Wheeler, a member of the Federal Reserve Board, noted that monetary policy stands at a crossroads, pointing out that energy prices, tariffs, and the demand for AI deployment are acting as inflationary pressures. In a speech at the New York Business Economics Association, Director Wheeler stated, "Inflation and monetary policy are currently at a crossroads as conflicts in the Middle East are disrupting the production and transportation of oil and raw materials." He further pointed out, "While central banks typically overlook one-time price increases such as tariff hikes or soaring oil prices, the high rate of increase in core inflation—excluding food and energy—is concerning." He specifically stated that if the upward trend in core inflation, a good indicator for predicting future inflation, continues, they will not repeat the mistake of failing to respond more quickly to high inflation in 2021. However, noting that the desire to avoid past mistakes can sometimes lead to new ones, he added that there are significant differences between now and 2021, providing grounds to believe that inflation will begin to fall to the 2% target. *Christopher Wheeler, Governor of the Federal Reserve Board, the central bank of the United States* He went on to mention that while they are doing their best to bring inflation back to the FOMC's 2% target, they also seek to avoid the risk of triggering a recession by tightening policy excessively. Director Waller analyzed that while high energy prices likely acted as a stumbling block for consumer spending in the second quarter, spending appears to have held up well, and companies continued their investments in artificial intelligence (AI). He also emphasized that consumer resilience has been a consistent characteristic of the U.S. economy over the past few years, noting that "private domestic final purchases," a key indicator of potential real GDP growth, likely increased significantly. Furthermore, despite some concerns on Wall Street regarding whether AI demand can sustain rapid growth, he predicted that AI-related investments will continue at a strong pace in the short term as well as next year. He also assessed that employment is approaching its maximum sustainable level, and that the intensity of the economic expansion, now in its sixth year, is neither a cause for concern nor a source of inflationary pressure. However, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index moved within the 2.8% to 2.9% range from September 2025 to February of this year, before recording 4.1% over the 12 months through May; the analysis attributed this to high oil prices as the primary cause. In particular, it noted that the upward trend in core inflation began long before the oil price shock occurred, stating that the prices of core intermediate goods within the Producer Price Index (PPI), which can be passed on to the PCE, have surged in recent months. It also pointed out that manufacturing Purchasing Managers (PMI) reported that input prices continued to rise in June, marking the 21st consecutive month of reported increases. Citing the causes of this inflation as tariffs, energy prices, and spillover effects from demand for AI deployment, the FOMC emphasized that it must be prepared to tighten monetary policy to prevent a recurrence of inflation seen in 2021. However, it added that the labor market is not as bad as it was then, and that tightening monetary policy further now carries a much greater risk of driving up unemployment and triggering a recession. ** Reporter | Lee Seung-yoon Audio | AI Anchor Production | Lee Seon #ThisNews ▶ Original Article : https://www.ytn.co.kr/_ln/0545_202607... ▶ Send a Tip : https://mj.ytn.co.kr/mj/mj_write.php ▣ Subscribe to YTN YouTube Channel : http://goo.gl/Ytb5SZ ⓒ YTN Unauthorized reproduction, redistribution, and use of AI data are prohibited.