호르무즈발 인플레 공포: “한국은행, 본격적인 긴축 시작”..지금 빚투하면 큰일나는 진짜 이유 / 교양이를 부탁해

International oil prices are not falling. With the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remaining unresolved, Brent crude has risen to its highest level in a month, and upward pressure has persisted for several days. Although U.S. consumer prices for June fell short of market expectations, they remain in the 3% range; meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, appearing at his first congressional hearing since taking office, firmly stated that he would "not tolerate high inflation." The Bank of Korea remains in a dilemma, despite observations that a rate hike is imminent. With oil prices continuing their high-flying trajectory, where are prices and interest rates headed? Professor Seo Eun-sook of the School of Economics and Finance at Sangmyung University boldly identifies the true nature of this turmoil, the fact that central banks truly fear not "oil prices" but people's "expectations," how prices shift from a temporary "shock" into an irreversible "structure" as the war drags on, and what individuals need to address before their assets ahead of a period of interest rate hikes. What he, a longtime researcher of macroeconomics and financial markets, focuses on is not today's oil price graph, but the 'time lag' that will arrive in our wallets 3 to 4 months from now. 📌Contributor: Seo Eun-sook (Professor, School of Economics and Finance, Sangmyung University) Key Points of This Episode: ◼ When oil prices rise, prices only move 3 to 4 months later ◼ Inflation is an 'invisible tax' ◼ 2% rise in prices + wage freeze = real wage cut ◼ Central banks do not look at the CPI; why 'expected inflation' is important ◼ If a war drags on, prices become a 'structural' issue rather than a 'shock' ◼ When interest rates rise, the first thing to address is 'liabilities,' not assets ◼ Three-pronged upward pressure — Crude oil and raw materials, supply chain restructuring costs, and short-term prices driven by AI data centers (chipflation and electricity prices) *The investment information in this content is for reference only, and investment decisions and responsibilities lie with the individual. #PleaseTakeCareOfKyoyang #SurgeInOilPrices #ExpectedInflation #InterestRateHike #Hormuz #Prices #BankOfKorea #KOSPI #Semiconductor #Leverage #SamsungElectronics #SKHynix #RealEstate 00:00 The Middle East war has become structural high inflation, not a temporary shock 01:51 Supply chain costs and demand for AI infrastructure are causing a raw material crisis 04:30 Why the Fed is considering raising interest rates despite the US fiscal burden 06:06 Prices, loans, and exchange rates exploded simultaneously… The Bank of Korea's 3 Major Rate Hike Signals 07:33 How a 0.5%p Interest Rate Hike Crashes Middle-Class Consumption 09:11 Why Does a Rise in Discount Rates Reduce the Future Value of Stocks? 11:08 The Dilemma: Raising Rates Leads to Delinquencies, Not Raising Them Causes Exchange Rates to Explode 14:31 In the Era of High Interest Rates, Semiconductors Hold Up While Biotech and KOSDAQ Waver 16:05 Hormuz-induced High Interest Rate Fear: Why Investing with Debt Now Is a Big Deal [Kyoyang-i Production Team] Brand & IP Director: Han Dong-hoon / Writers: Son Ye-won, Yoo Jin-kyung / Editing: Kim Cho-a, Hyun Seung-ho, Song Gyu-beom / Content Design: Ok Ji-soo, Choi Heung-rak / Cinematography: Park Woo-jin / Interns: Park Ji-min, Ahn Chae-won [Business Inquiries] Please Take Care of Kyoyang-i, Inquiries regarding appearances, sponsorships, and content: [email protected] Knowledge news that makes you smarter the more you listen, Please Take Care of Kyoyang-i @sbs_explained Copyright Ⓒ SBS. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction, redistribution, and use for AI learning are prohibited.