Monday 7 AM Tropical Update: Tropical disturbance to bring heavy rain to the area

The National Hurricane Center is highlighting a broad area of low pressure over eastern Mexico for possible tropical development. Development is not expected over the next day or two while the system remains inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas. It could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf around midweek as it interacts with a front, but conditions only look marginally favorable for development. The chance of formation is near 0% over the next 48 hours and 30% over the next 7 days. Regardless of development, moisture from this system will help bring a wetter pattern to the Gulf South this week. Heavy downpours will be possible across Southeast Louisiana and South Mississippi, and some could lead to isolated street flooding. Forecast models still differ on the exact track. Some bring the deepest tropical moisture into Louisiana by the middle of the week, while others keep it focused farther west over Texas. Either way, periods of heavy rain appear increasingly likely across the central Gulf Coast Tuesday through Thursday. The greatest threat from this system will be heavy rainfall and localized flooding, not wind. A few strong thunderstorms, isolated downbursts, and even waterspouts cannot be ruled out, but the primary concern remains the potential for several inches of rain where bands repeatedly move over the same locations. We will continue to watch trends closely as confidence in the track and rainfall forecast improves over the next couple of days.