Global X's Helfstein: Don't bet against this strong investment cycle, resilient consumer

Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X ETFs, says that while the Iran War got the headlines, trade negotiations will be the story that carries the market forward for the rest of the year, provided there are no policy stumbles. He says the market has calmed down around Fed policy and while midterm elections tend to make for tough markets, there have been strongly positive results after midterms when a unified power structure — the President, Senate and Congress all being on one side of the political aisle — transitions to a divided leadership. Helfstein has plenty of reasons for optimism, noting all of the ways the market and economy have powered through trouble, and says that he expects slower earnings growth but better profitability from the market moving into next year, and he notes that better profitability leads to higher multiples, a healthy economy and higher level for the stock market. John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors, dug into data from his firm's quarterly outlook presentation to show that while business-development companies faced a lot of headline and interest-rate risk and were beaten up in the market recently, they are poised to rebound sharply in the second half of the year, particularly as the Federal Reserve provides more clarity on what's next for interest rates. Scott, the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, noted that closed-end funds had a strong quarter b ut that the gains came more from rising prices than from narrowing discounts, a sign that good things could be ahead if market sentiment gets stronger. Allison Hadley discusses PartnerCentric's 2026 Buy Now, Pay Later survey, which showed that payment programs are a big way that consumers are dealing with higher inflation and lower affordability. The survey showed that use of BNPL programs is up 20% year over year, but the typical buy now, pay later transaction amount has gotten smaller, which Hadley says is a sign that people are increasingly turning to payment programs for ordinary, everyday purchases.