New Constructs' Trainer on trouble ahead for Anthropic, OpenAI

David Trainer, founder and president of New Constructs, puts some big-name soon-to-IPO artificial-intelligence companies in The Danger Zone this week, saying he has concerns about what they are paying for inputs compared to foreign competitors, and noting that cost disadvantages will multiply and worsen the more A.I. becomes a commodity that everyone uses. He says this is part of every industrial revolution cycle, and often becomes a big determinant in which early players survive and thrive. In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses today's launch of single-stock futures by the CME Group, noting that they are more a gamble than an investment and saying he never would have used them for ordinary consumers during his days as a financial planner. Where the herd is moving towards these instruments and being scared out of some A.I. companies based on the market's capital-spending concerns, Marolia says most of those market fears have been overblown, and that a careful long-term investor will find buying opportunities amid the near daily wreckage. Plus, he discusses how high electric bills — jacked up by a heat wave that has caused high usage but also by energy concerns — are the extra cost consumers are not talking about while they are busy complaining about gas prices. Charles Rotblut, vice president for the American Association of Individual Investors, discusses their latest sentiment survey results, which showed a striking drop in optimism, with bullish sentiment levels dropping by more than 15 percentage points last week as the war in Iran started heating up again. Bullish sentiment was well below its historical averages for the third time in the last four weeks, while bearish sentiment reached levels Rotblut characterized as "unusually high." Bearish sentiment has been above its historical averages for nearly 6 months straight. Martha Moore discusses the latest Business Conditions Survey out today from the National Association for Business Economics, which showed that confidence in the economy has improved but the caution level remains high. Moore, the chief economist for the American Chemistry Council, noted that for the fifth time in the last six quarters, the number of economists predicting lower forward profits was bigger than those expecting higher earnings, but she also said that more than one third of the economists are expecting higher capital expenditures over the next quarter, spending that will boost the economy in the face of mixed results on profitability.