"Para él la guerra es una baza electoral" Jesús Núñez (ECI #168)

In El Círculo Independiente, Euprepio Padula welcomes Jesús Núñez, economist and international analyst, to bring order to a landscape marked by wars, economic uncertainty, and a rapidly shifting geopolitical balance. The interview doesn't seek easy consolation, but rather to understand what lies behind the headlines. The first segment focuses on the US and Israeli war against Iran. Núñez emphasizes the importance of calling it a war, not a war "in Iran," but a war "against Iran." From his perspective, it is an act of aggression that violates international law, because neither Israel nor the United States could invoke self-defense nor did they have a UN Security Council resolution. Furthermore, he maintains that the operation has failed to achieve any of its objectives. The figure of Benjamin Netanyahu occupies a significant portion of the conversation. According to Núñez, the Israeli prime minister thrives politically on war. It allows him to delay the legal proceedings against him and rebuild an image of strong leadership after the security failure of the October 7 attacks. In this context, he also situates the dream of a “Greater Israel,” understood as the desire to make Israel the dominant actor in the Middle East. Padula then asks if everything can be reduced to Netanyahu. Núñez responds that it cannot. In his view, the Israeli electorate has been shifting toward increasingly extreme positions for years, culminating in the most radical government in the country's history. This explains the room for maneuver enjoyed by Netanyahu and his partners, but it also compels us to consider the accumulated international responsibility. Israel, he asserts, has become accustomed since its inception to its actions having no real consequences. This responsibility includes the United States, the European Union, and the Arab governments. Washington has historically supported Israel diplomatically, economically, and militarily. The European Union, according to Núñez, “doesn't know, doesn't answer,” trapped between internal divisions and historical complexities. And the Arab governments have been normalizing relations with Israel while the Palestinian people are increasingly isolated. The relationship between Donald Trump and Netanyahu appears as an alliance of personal and strategic interests. Núñez argues that Trump's foreign policy is intertwined with business and the need to concentrate efforts against China. On this chessboard, Israel functions as a key pawn in the attempt to reshape the Middle East. Russia then emerges as another decisive actor. Núñez believes that Vladimir Putin seeks, above all, to be recognized as a global power. By treating him as a first-rate interlocutor, Trump has restored some of that status. However, he emphasizes that Russia currently lacks the instruments that define contemporary power. Beyond oil, gas, and weapons, Moscow lacks the technological and economic capacity of other actors. Regarding Ukraine, his assessment is harsh. The Ukrainian army has become the most operational in Europe, but that doesn't mean it can expel all the invading troops. The conflict seems to be heading toward some kind of agreement that entails the loss of part of Ukrainian territory to Russia. A cold conclusion, but one born from the need to face reality without self-deception. The European Union is portrayed as a necessary but insufficient power. Núñez declares himself a staunch European, albeit a critical one. He believes that European states have become too small to guarantee the security and well-being of their citizens on their own. The solution should lie in a stronger European Union with a single voice, but national instincts prevent this. The final major player is China. Núñez sums it up with a clear phrase: China is an ally of China. Xi Jinping is playing a smart game, reaching out to the so-called Global South and those who share a discontent with American hegemony. For Europe, the strategy should not be to break with the United States or close doors to China, but rather to engage with both from a common position. The episode doesn't leave a particularly optimistic message, but it does serve as a call for clarity. Jesús Núñez offers no easy answers. It offers a map to understand why the world moves the way it does and why Europe must decide whether it wants to be a spectator or a protagonist.