Доля энергии решает все что будет с нефтью и экономикой осенью | Михаил Хазин и Вячеслав Мищенко

Why the world is heading toward a structural crisis. Mikhail Khazin and Vyacheslav Mishchenko explore structural models, why the share of energy in the price of any commodity is crucial, how industrial inflation in the US of more than one percent per month leads to collapse, why the shift of profits to trading has been a blow to the real sector, and how the financial sector's share has grown from 5 percent in 1913 to over 70 percent today. We discuss what model should be built for the next 10 years, whether raw materials and petrochemicals will remain in demand, what currency will be used for trade, why a shortage of raw materials and food shortages may occur in some regions as early as this fall, the role of fertilizers derived from gas, and why methane is both a raw material and a fuel. This is a pressing topic and requires further exploration. 0:00:00 Welcome and introduction of the guest, an oil price specialist 0:01:00 A story from fifteen years ago at an economic forum and meeting an American 0:02:40 Who are economists according to Harvard, Princeton, and Cambridge 0:04:00 Narrow specialists versus broad knowledge: the difference in approaches in the US and here 0:05:40 An example with a fork and the share of energy in its cost: 36 or 42 percent 0:07:20 The onset of the structural crisis after 2008 and a 2003 book 0:08:40 The main question: will the share of energy double or fall by a third? 0:10:20 The answer to the models and why the top manager didn't know the answer 0:12:00 The task of narrow specialists is to move business forward and sell raw materials 0:14:30 Upstream Kazakhstan and what global companies are doing locally 0:17:00 Industrial Inflation in the US is more than a percent per month and what are the risks? 0:20:00 Why financial structures will not save the real sector 0:23:00 Withdrawal of profits into the trading component as a blow to production 0:26:00 The share of the financial sector from 5 percent in 1913 to over 70 today 0:29:00 An alarming forecast for the fall and why we need to think about the model in advance 0:32:00 What model do we want in 10 years: a structural view of the economy 0:35:00 Raw materials will remain in demand: petrochemicals and the issue of currency trading 0:38:00 The subtlety of this fall: the lack of raw materials in a number of regions of the world 0:40:30 Food shortages and trader tricks with deliveries 0:42:30 No fertilizers: modern agriculture is impossible without oil and gas 0:44:30 Methane as a raw material and fuel at the same time and the energy balance 0:46:00 The end of the conversation and why the topic requires Continued Website with all videos and texts from all time: https://khazin.ru/ Subscribe to the closed Telegram channel: https://t.me/hazinOpen Schedule a consultation 🖊 https://t.me/economic_khazin Telegram channel: https://t.me/khazinml Strategic Forecasting Agency "Ark": https://strategic-ark.com/ Opinions and comments Mikhail Leonidovich Khazin #MikhailKhazin #Khazin #Economy #Mishchenko #oil #crisis #finance #forecast #structuralcrisis #energy #fertilizers