Iran Isn't Closing the Strait. It's Doing Something Smarter. | Prof. Jiang Xueqin

One-fifth of the world's oil once moved through a channel narrower than a city. Today it runs at a third. Two tankers got hit — and the balance of power in the Middle East quietly shifted. In this lecture, we use game theory to answer the question the headlines keep dodging: how does a sanctioned, isolated, supposedly "broke" state end up with its hand on the throttle of the global economy? We break down the escalation ladder, the difference between control and dominance, and why Iran's calibrated strategy at the Strait of Hormuz is straight out of the playbook that beat superpowers in Vietnam, frustrated empires in the Opium Wars, and reshaped the war in Ukraine. We map the hidden objectives of Washington, Tel Aviv, and Tehran — the real ones, not the press-conference ones — and we lay out exactly what to watch for over the next three to six months. This is analysis and interpretation of public information, not a prediction of certainty — figures and events are drawn from open reporting and offered as one framework for reading the region. Sources and further reading in the pinned comment. #Geopolitics #Iran #StraitOfHormuz #GameTheory #MiddleEast #Oil #ForeignPolicy