Will you still have a job in 2030? (with Timothy B. Lee)

Are you about to lose your job to AI? Most Americans fear AI will cause large-scale job losses within a decade, so Jerusalem Demsas and Matt Yglesias brought on their first-ever guest, Timothy B. Lee of the Understanding AI newsletter, to get to the bottom of it. Matt thinks a white-collar wipeout is coming. Jerusalem and Tim think the truth is slower and stranger. They also get into why AI won't replace coders anytime soon, Starbucks scaling back automation and bringing in more baristas, Matt's fear of more protectionism to slow down tech advancement, and why robots have a long way to go before they can do your laundry. (00:00) Our first guest: Tim Lee on AI and jobs (02:27) Matt's case for the white-collar wipeout (05:43) Jobs are bundles of tasks (08:26) The O-ring theory: why one human still matters (18:02) Tim's answer: it's all about timescales (21:27) Chess, Starbucks, and the human preference problem (24:28) The protectionism scramble: gas pumps and self-driving trucks (30:47) The "canaries in the coal mine" study on young workers (38:45) Channeling 2015 Matt: just run a hotter economy (49:30) Peer review: What's actually wrong with zoning? Join the argument: If you enjoyed this episode, please like, comment, and subscribe. It's the best way to help the channel grow. Is an AI takeover imminent, or do we have enough time to adapt? Let us know in the comments. Support the Show: Get a full transcript, show notes, and an ad-free version: https://www.theargumentmag.com/ Instagram:   / theargumentmag   X:   / theargumentmag   TikTok:   / theargumentmag   The Argument podcast with Jerusalem Demsas and Matthew Yglesias, featuring Timothy B. Lee, on AI, jobs, automation, robots, and the future of work. Peer Review: "Zoning: Externalities or Misallocation?" by Yu-Hsin Ho, Chang-Tai Hsieh, Wen-Tai Hsu & Yu-Jhih Luo. https://www.nber.org/papers/w35455 #TheArgument #AI #Jobs #ArtificialIntelligence #Automation #FutureOfWork #TimLee