GFOI R&D Exchange: Uncertainty quantification and reporting

The Global Forest Observations Initiative (GFOI) Research and Development (R&D) Coordination Component hosted the fourth session of the virtual GFOI R&D Exchange series, “Uncertainty quantification and reporting,” on 18 November 2025 from 16.00 to 18.00 CET (GMT +1.00). Accurate carbon reporting is essential for effective climate action, but how can we measure and communicate uncertainty in our estimates? This session showcased a range of different tools and methodologies – from geostatistical models to Monte Carlo simulations – designed to help countries effectively quantify and manage uncertainty. Participants learned from countries and leading experts as they share practical solutions and discussed strategies to strengthen the credibility of national forest monitoring and greenhouse gas (GHG) reporting. This event was designed for national GHG inventory compilers, remote sensing specialists, policy makers, researchers, and all stakeholders engaged in forest and carbon monitoring. Chapters 00:00:00 Introduction to R&D Exchanges, CALM Framework and Agenda - Daniela Requena (GFZ, GFOI R&D Coordinator) 00:09:08 The importance of uncertainties in forest monitoring and the R&D Component's role - Javier García Pérez (Gamarra) (FAO, GFOI R&D Uncertainties Co-Lead) 00:16:27 Communicating uncertainty using Earth Observation - Robert Kennedy (Oregon State University, GFOI R&D Uncertainties Co-Lead) 00:27:00 On design-based, model-assisted, and model-based forest carbon estimation and uncertainty assessment approaches - Chad Babcock (UMN) 00:48:30 {mocaredd}: A Monte Carlo Tool and its application - Gael Sola (FAO) 01:06:36 Q&A, feedback and closing remarks - Daniela Requena (moderator) 01:22:29 GFOI & audience interaction - Javier García Pérez (Gamarra) and Daniela Requena 01:33:45 Closing remarks and next steps - Chad Babcock and Daniela Requena