Macroeconomic Prospects and Election-Year Spending in the Philippines

How did the Philippine economy shape up heading into 2026—and what role did election-year spending actually play? To open its 2026 public events, the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) hosted a public webinar on January 15, 2026, from 9:00 AM to 11:30 AM via Zoom. The webinar featured two recent PIDS papers that examined the country’s macroeconomic prospects for 2026 and the short-term economic effects of election-related spending. The first study, “Macroeconomic Prospects of the Philippines in 2025–2026: Restoring Confidence amid Glocal Transitions,” by PIDS Senior Research Fellow Dr. John Paolo R. Rivera, Research Specialist Ramona Maria L. Miral, and former Research Specialist Mark Gerald C. Ruiz, served as the lead chapter of the PIDS Economic Policy Monitor. It reviewed economic performance in 2024 and 2025 and presented projections for 2026, assessing trends in growth, inflation, employment, and fiscal, external, and financial conditions amid a shifting global environment. The study highlighted persistent vulnerabilities—including inflation volatility, exchange rate pressures, and fiscal constraints—and underscored the role of credible governance and sound macroeconomic management in restoring confidence as the country moves toward upper middle-income status. The second study, “Election-Year Stimuli and Economic Performance: Evidence from a Macroeconometric Model of the Philippines,” by the same authors, analyzed how election-related spending shocks were transmitted through the economy. Using an augmented macroeconometric model, the study found that election years generated short-term, demand-driven expansions driven by higher government and private spending. However, these effects were largely temporary, with economic activity reverting toward baseline levels after elections. The paper pointed to the need for stronger institutions, fiscal transparency, and countercyclical policies to limit volatility and support long-term stability. The event was also livestreamed on the PIDS and SERP-P Facebook pages. 📄 Read the full studies: https://bit.ly/pidsdp2025-36 https://bit.ly/pidsdp2025-60 00:16:55 – 00:22:45 - Opening Remarks Philip Arnold Tuaño, PhD President, Philippine Institute for Development Studies 00:27:20 – 01:15:52 - Macroeconomic Prospects of the Philippines in 2025–2026 Restoring Confidence amid Glocal Transitions and Election-Year Stimuli Economic Performance: Evidence from a Macroeconometric Model of the Philippines John Paolo Rivera, PhD Senior Research Fellow, Philippine Institute for Development Studies 01:22:14 – 01:36:54 - Reaction and Insights Marites Tiongco, PhD Professor, School of Economics, De La Salle University 01:39:38 – 01:55:01 - Reaction and Insights Alvin Joseph Arogo First Vice President, Head of Research Division & Chief Economist Philippine National Bank 02:08:50 – 02:49:32 - Open Forum