津上俊哉 現代中国研究家 「どうなる中国経済」②　2015.9.4

Toshiya Tsugami, President of Tsugami Workshop Toshiya Tsugami, author of books such as "The Struggle of the Giant Dragon: China's Illusion of World's Number One GDP," spoke on the topic of "Urgent Report: The Chinese Economy - Outlook for the Chinese Economy After the Devaluation of the Yuan," and answered questions from reporters. Moderator: Kenji Bando, Planning Committee Member, Japan National Press Club (Mainichi Shimbun) http://www.jnpc.or.jp/activities/news... ~ This time, he offered an even more pessimistic view, stating, "Reckless investment cannot be sustained, and the 'inflating growth' strategy has reached its limits. While the target is 7% GDP growth, the reality is likely below 5%." He also frequently criticized the one-sided reporting of the media. In response to predictions that "the Chinese economy will collapse," he pointed out that "the central government's finances are robust, and reforms have begun to rescue local governments from debt crises," and "the real estate market is polarized, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou showing signs of recovery." He then declared that "there will be no economic collapse." He emphasized that China is the same size as all of Europe, encompassing a wide range of regions from underdeveloped areas like Greece to advanced areas like Germany. He stressed that the economy is "patchy" and cannot be generalized. Regarding the global economic slowdown and simultaneous stock market decline, he stated that "China is not the sole source," and warned that "while Japan views this as 'someone else's problem,' the damage is greater in Japan and Southeast Asia than in China itself." The meticulous analysis and multifaceted perspective were extremely helpful. Hiroyuki Yamaki, former Jiji Press employee