Who Is Winning the Iran War: Tehran or Trump?

This debate was recorded on Tuesday, July 7, 2026, before the apparent verbal dissolution of the Islamabad Memorandum and the recent escalation of the Iran War. Until recently, it appeared that the Islamabad Memorandum, signed by the U.S. and Iran, both extended the ceasefire and reopened shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while setting a 60-day negotiating window for a broader deal on Iran’s nuclear program and regional posture. Now the situation looks fluid again, with conflict resuming in the past few days. Given this seeming instability, is the Trump administration still in a good position to secure a strategic victory, or does Iran still have a chance to get a better deal and more success? Supporters of Trump’s war argue he’s demonstrated that attacks on U.S. interests and Gulf shipping carry real costs. The U.S. doesn’t need regime change to be victorious; it has severely crippled Iran's military and left the country and its leadership in disarray. Those who argue Tehran has the advantage say Iran has been successfully exposing the limits of American power. The U.S. has thus far not been able to achieve regime change or its other stated goals, and the regime is more entrenched, not less. Not to mention, Iran has gained considerable leverage on the global stage over the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier this week, we staged a debate when it still appeared the combat phase was behind us, asking this question: Who won the war in Iran — Tehran or Trump? Even with resumed hostilities, the core issues at stake in our debate remain fully relevant. Which side holds the upper hand, and what has been gained and lost? Arguing "Tehran is Winning": Suzanne Maloney, Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution Arguing "Trump is Winning": Matthew Kroenig, Vice President for Geostrategy and Fellows and Senior Director of the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security Emmy award-winning journalist John Donvan moderates #opentodebate #debate #iran #war #iranwar Visit our Substack to watch more insightful debates and subscribe to our newsletter. =================================== Subscribe on Substack: https://opentodebate.substack.com/ Official site: https://opentodebate.org/ X:   / opentodebateorg   Facebook:   / beopentodebate   LinkedIn:   / opentodebate   Instagram:   / opentodebateorg   TikTok:   / opentodebateorg   Open to Debate Apple Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/bdzmz5xt Open to Debate Spotify Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/22tuxu7h =================================== 00:00:00 – Introduction: Who Is Winning the Iran War: Tehran or Trump? 00:01:42 – Introduction of Debaters 00:03:37 – Opening Statement: Suzanne Maloney (Arguing "Tehran") 00:07:47 – Opening Statement: Matthew Kroenig (Arguing "Trump") 00:12:01 – Moderator Summary 00:14:06 – Did the War Actually Weaken Iran? 00:19:00 – Did the War Stop Iran's Nuclear Program? 00:20:32 – Was Regime Change Ever the Goal? 00:23:56 – The Strait of Hormuz and Iran's Leverage 00:27:57 – Did the Memorandum of Understanding Favor Iran? 00:30:00 – Global Consequences: China, Russia & U.S. Credibility 00:33:49 – Can Future Negotiations with Iran Succeed? 00:35:56 – Is the U.S. Trapped in the Middle East? 00:40:25 – Did Either Side Really Win? 00:45:56 – Has Iran Gained the Upper Hand? 00:49:40 – Closing Statement: Suzanne Maloney 00:51:35 – Closing Statement: Matthew Kroenig 00:53:30 – Final Thoughts