【報ステ解説】“復旧途中”の熊本城…被害再び　10年前の地震との関連は？【報道ステーション】(2026年7月28日)

On the 28th, an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 5+ was observed in Chuo Ward, Kumamoto City, where Kumamoto Castle is located. At 4:27 PM, this is footage from a camera capturing Kumamoto Castle. Approximately 20 seconds after the camera began shaking, a cloud of dust-like material rose into the air. The area gradually expanded, and the area around the castle tower became shrouded in smoke. At Kumamoto Castle, the scars of the earthquake 10 years ago have not yet completely disappeared. The Kumamoto Earthquake occurred in April 2016. On April 14th, a seismic intensity of 7 was observed in Mashiki Town. 28 hours later, on the 16th, a seismic intensity of 7 was again observed in Nishihara Village and Mashiki Town. Kumamoto Castle suffered damage to 33 buildings, including 13 important cultural properties. Full-scale restoration of the castle tower began the following year. In 2021, the restoration of the castle tower was completed, and the interior was reopened to the public. However, restoration work on the stone walls and important cultural properties is still ongoing, and complete recovery is still some time away. The aim was to complete the work by fiscal year 2052. According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, there are two faults near the epicenter of this earthquake. Japan Meteorological Agency: "Around the epicenter of this earthquake, there are the Futagawa Fault Zone and the Hinagu Fault Zone. The location of this earthquake appears to be close to the Hinagu Fault Zone." According to the government's Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, the cause of the earthquake 10 years ago was the Futagawa Fault Zone, which runs west of Aso, and the Hinagu Fault Zone, which extends to the Yatsushiro Sea. The earthquake redistributed strain to the surrounding ground, and the Hinagu Fault Zone remains prone to earthquakes. In the Hinagu section, which did not shift significantly, the probability of an earthquake occurring within 30 years is up to 6%. Furthermore, in the Yatsushiro Sea section to the south, the probability of an earthquake occurring is up to 16%, placing it in the group with the highest probability of occurrence among major active faults nationwide. Japan Meteorological Agency: "Because the earthquakes are occurring at shallow depths, many earthquakes are happening. Please be aware of the possibility of earthquakes of up to magnitude 7 over the next week or so, especially in the next two to three days. Also, as seen in the past in Kumamoto, there have been cases of multiple earthquakes occurring in succession, so please exercise extreme caution." ◆Interview with Associate Professor Yosuke Aoki of the Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo. (Q. The Japan Meteorological Agency has named this earthquake the "2026 Kumamoto Earthquake." Kumamoto experienced a magnitude 7 earthquake exactly 10 years ago. Should we look into any connection between this earthquake and the one 10 years ago?) Associate Professor Yosuke Aoki "Yes, that's right. The Kumamoto earthquake 10 years ago occurred in this Futagawa fault zone. The force was released there, but the force accumulated in the surrounding area, around the Hinagu fault zone. After the Kumamoto earthquake 10 years ago, there were concerns that a major earthquake might occur in the Hinagu fault zone at some point." (Q. We don't know when an earthquake will occur, but it's quite early, and this many...) I was very surprised that the same strong earthquake occurred again. What are your thoughts from an expert's perspective? Associate Professor Yosuke Aoki: "I thought it would happen someday, but I couldn't really predict when. It could come soon, or in 10 years, or even later. That's what we were thinking." (Q. Just to confirm, 10 years ago, the energy was released, but then strain began to accumulate again, and that earthquake, although the timing is unknown, happened this time?) Associate Professor Yosuke Aoki: "Although the energy was released, in the surrounding area (of the Hinagu fault zone), "So it was accumulating there." (Q. Specifically, how do you see the fault moving?) Associate Professor Yosuke Aoki "The fault that moved this time was the Hinagu Fault Zone, and this time it was a right-lateral strike-slip fault, meaning the ground moved horizontally across the fault." (Q. Looking at aerial footage of the highway, we can see cracks running through the road and it's rising up. Is this another example, or typical, of this type of earthquake?) Associate Professor Yosuke Aoki "Yes, if the fault ruptures close to the surface, or even up to the surface, then you can see the displacement on the ground." (Q. A seismic intensity of 7 is very high.) It was a strong earthquake, but are there any characteristic features to the shaking? Associate Professor Yosuke Aoki "The characteristic of this shaking is that it's a rapid, short-period tremor. It's not a gentle swaying, but a rapid, short-period tremo...