Сделка с Ираном: иллюзия Трампа или новая война?

🌍 The US and Iran are suddenly moving closer to a possible deal that only recently seemed impossible. ⚔️ Why is Trump trying to end the war now—and what is the White House really afraid of? ⛽ What's happening around the Strait of Hormuz, and why has oil become the main political factor in the American campaign? 🇮🇱 Why is Israel increasingly worried about a potential compromise between Washington and Tehran? 📉 Can Iran get an economic respite without changing its strategy and nuclear ambitions? 🚨 Why is there increasing talk within the Republican Party about the risk of a "second Obama deal"? 🧠 Trump's main bet today: can Iran's behavior be changed without changing the regime itself? 📊 And will the current diplomacy be just a pause before the next Middle East crisis? Arkady Mil-Man is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Russia Program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). https://www.inss.org.il/ Former Israeli Ambassador to Russia. 🔴 Subscribe to stay up-to-date with important analyses! 00:00:00 🕐 The Illusion of a Finale: Why Trump's Sudden Diplomatic Progress Is Raising Alarm in Washington and Jerusalem. 00:02:02 🕐 The Doha Two-Stage Scheme: How the US and Iran Are Trying to First Cease Fire in the Strait and Put Off the Nuclear Issue for Later. 00:03:08 🕐 Financial Market Reaction: The Fall in Brent Oil Prices and the White House's Attempt to Bring Down Inflation Before the Elections. 00:04:02 🕐 Strikes amid negotiations: new US Navy attacks on IRGC boats attempting to mine the Strait of Hormuz. 00:25:29 🕐 Key risks of the agreement: maintaining Tehran's nuclear potential, ballistic missiles, and regional proxy networks. 00:26:05 🕐 Trump's dilemma: attempting to change Iran's strategic calculations without forcibly dismantling and changing the totalitarian regime. #MilMan #Arkady_MilMan #Israel #Russia #ABCs_of_Geopolitics