Oil, war and economies – Three scenarios for the Middle East conflict

News of a record release of emergency oil reserves has quickly been overshadowed by images of tankers on fire in the Strait of Hormuz. Thirteen days into the conflict, tensions in the Middle East appear to be escalating rather than easing. What is the view from commodity and financial markets, and what could this mean for the global economy? Capital Economics has modelled three scenarios to assess how oil and gas supplies and prices could evolve as the conflict unfolds, and what this might mean for global growth, inflation, central bank policy and financial markets. In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing: Chief Climate & Commodities Economist David Oxley discusses how our scenarios map out potential paths for oil and gas supply and prices, depending on the duration of the conflict and the extent of damage to production and infrastructure. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains how these scenarios could translate into different growth and inflation outcomes globally, and what they might mean for central bank policy — including what to expect from the upcoming meetings of the Fed, Bank of England, ECB and Bank of Japan. Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann explores how financial markets could respond, how far prices might rebound in the event of a ceasefire, and which trades may never fully recover. Explore all our coverage of the conflict, including our scenarios here: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issue... Interested in trial access? Email us at [email protected] ( [email protected] ) The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics Episode 194 March 12, 2026 ★ Episode details: https://share.transistor.fm/s/4eac5cb2 ★ Additional episodes: http://www.capitaleconomics.com