Oriz Macro: Menor restrição monetária com alívio da inflação

In today's Oriz Macro, Carlos Kawall, partner at Oriz, and Marcos Bredda De Marchi, chief economist at Oriz, commented on the testimony of Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh before the US Congress, which reinforced the intention not to signal the next steps in advance and to maintain low tolerance for persistent inflation. June's inflation data in the United States came in well below expectations, with the headline index falling 0.4% in the month and slowing to 3.5% over 12 months, but the episode suggests that the recent rise in oil prices (nearly 20% since the beginning of July) could reverse some of this relief in the coming months. In Brazil, June's IPCA (Consumer Price Index) and May's activity data brought more benign surprises, with inflation easing in its main components and consumption losing momentum at the margin, even within a context of a heated economy. According to Oriz's analysis, this set of factors reopens space for the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) to proceed with cautious steps to reduce monetary restriction, which led the firm to revise its scenario for the Selic rate, from stability at 14.25% to two cuts in the next meetings, bringing the rate to 13.75%, albeit with low conviction given the proximity of the election period. 📣 Follow Oriz on social media: Website: https://www.orizpartners.com.br/ Instagram:   / orizpartners   LinkedIn:   / orizpartners   Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6XZES0H...