Oriz Macro: Endividamento público em trajetória insustentável

In today's Oriz Macro, Marcos De Marchi, chief economist at Oriz Partners, commented on the US labor market data for June, which came in below expectations, with 57,000 jobs created, but with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2%, a reading considered neutral for monetary policy. In Brazil, industrial production and the CAGED (General Register of Employed and Unemployed Workers) for May were slightly below consensus, signaling a still healthy labor market, but less heated than at the turn of the year. The episode pays special attention to the fiscal trajectory, with gross debt reaching a record 81.1% of GDP and household defaults at the highest level in the historical series, at 7.6%. According to Oriz's analysis, the rate of debt growth is unsustainable and aggravated by stimulus measures in an election year and the weakening of the fiscal framework, in a scenario where the benign external environment for emerging markets still offers some protection, but which, according to the assessment of the episode, could unravel and exact a heavy price if fiscal problems are not addressed from 2027 onwards. 📣 Follow Oriz on social media: Website: https://www.orizpartners.com.br/ Instagram:   / orizpartners   LinkedIn:   / orizpartners   Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6XZES0H...