'메타 쇼크'에 단숨에 무너진 코스피 8,000선… AI 과열 경고등 속 엔터주 저평가 반등 vs 반도체·소부장 전방위 폭락 l 허반석·김동엽·서용원 l 더 워룸 2부

#MetaShock #KOSPI8000Collapse #ConcernsAboutAIOverinvestment #StillHolding #EntertainmentStockRevival #HYBE #SM #SemiconductorChipBreak #RiskManagement 👤 Cast Information Heo Ban-seok | CEO of Momentum Tree Kim Dong-yeop | CEO of S1 Investment Research Institute Seo Yong-won | Deputy Manager, SK Securities Icheon PB Center 💡 Today's Code Name Key Point (Still Holding): US and domestic semiconductor stocks plummeted due to concerns arising that hyperscalers might slow down the pace of capital expenditures following Meta's plan to supply surplus infrastructure externally. However, memory demand is structurally bound to increase due to the spread of 'Agent AI' beyond simple generative AI. Compared to the global benchmark (Micron), Samsung Electronics (6.0x) and SK Hynix (6.8x) are currently in an excessive discount zone. There is sufficient potential for an upward rally once the target PER normalizes. Since Samsung Electronics' preliminary earnings announcement in early July and SK Hynix's ADR listing on the 10th will serve as strong turning points for valuation revaluation, a strategy of holding and staggered buying is more effective than panic selling during periods of increased volatility. ⚔️ Supply & Demand Analysis Room 📈 ① Buy It – Entertainment Kim Dong-yeop: It has been left in an extremely undervalued zone, overshadowed by the dominance of AI and semiconductors. In the Q2 expected operating profit, HIVE (144.5 billion KRW, +119%) and SM (53.8 billion KRW, +13%) met the consensus, proving their strong earnings power. With abundant momentum waiting in the second half, such as BTS's historic world tour and the simultaneous comeback of major artists, the energy for a rebound is strong. Seo Yong-won: It is currently in a high-rebound phase where clear price merit has emerged thanks to undergoing a steep price correction. While there may be structural risk factors such as the rising distribution ratio for senior artists, this sector deserves attention as an alternative sector poised to drive strong earnings growth in the second half, as the effects of world tours by groups like BTS are fully reflected in performance. Related stocks: HYBE, SM Entertainment, JYP Entertainment. 📉 ② Palgeol – Semiconductor Top Two + Materials, Parts, and Equipment (Sobujang) Kim Dong-yeop: Investor sentiment cooled sharply as BlackRock downgraded its investment ratings for emerging markets like Korea and Taiwan, and Michael Burry disclosed his short position on Nvidia. The news that big tech companies like Meta and xAI have begun supplying surplus AI infrastructure externally served as the decisive blow. Furthermore, concerns regarding pension fund rebalancing are putting pressure on supply and demand from all sides; therefore, rapid risk response, such as adjusting portfolio weights, is required when abnormal signals appear in the market. Seo Yong-won: Meta's announcement of providing compute resources externally has triggered fears of a slowdown in capital investment among hyperscalers. As a result, not only Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix but also front-end and back-end substrate, material, and equipment stocks (Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Simtek, etc.) are facing a sharp correction. However, as this does not represent a deterioration in long-term market conditions, it is worth maintaining a perspective of staggered buying during corrections caused by short-term selling pressure. 📝 Tomorrow's Market iF Report ① What if the KOSPI falls further tomorrow? (Buy at the bottom vs. Watch) – Kim Dong-yeop If the index falls further, it will threaten the previous KOSPI low of 7,700 and test the support level of 7,500, where the 60-day moving average is located. Although the National Pension Service's total domestic investment has evaporated by at least 30 trillion won due to the aftermath of the Meta Shock, it is expected that the selling pressure from pension funds' half-year rebalancing will enter its final phase after undergoing one more additional correction. Attention should be limited to defensive sectors (GS E&C, Kolmar Korea, Samsung SDI, etc.) in construction, cosmetics, and secondary batteries that possess clear earnings visibility for the second quarter. ② What if the KOSPI falls further tomorrow? (Buying the bottom vs. Waiting and Seeing) – Seo Yong-won If the KOSPI falls further and reaches the technical lowest point, staggered buying (buying the bottom) of leading semiconductor and defense stocks with solid fundamentals remains valid. However, as market sentiment is severely dampened, even if a temporary rebound occurs, rather than aggressively chasing the rally, one must formulate a response position with thorough caution and slowness, keeping in mind the possibility that the market will remain trapped in a trading range for the entire month of July. #MetaShock #AIOverinvestment #KOSPI8000Collapse #CircuitBreakerWarning #NPDInterestRateBalancing #SamsungElectronics #SKHynix #SamsungElectricMechani...