삼성전자 실적 D-1 및 SK하이닉스 미국행 임박, 검증의 무대 선 증시… 나토·잠수함 수혜 조선·방산 불장 vs 외면받는 코스닥 바이오 l 허반석·김문석·최수창 l 더 워룸 2부

#KOSPI8000Recovery #TimeForVerification #SemiconductorSuperWeek #SaleEndingImminent #ForeignInvestorsReturnToFutures #ShipbuildingAndDefenseStockRally #NATOSummit #CanadianSubmarine #KOSDAQSupplyAndDemandOutflow #EarningsSeasonOpens 👤 Cast Information Hyun Sang-jun | CEO, Ventus Investment Kim Moon-seok | CEO, Mirae Guide Co., Ltd. Choi Soo-chang | CEO, MD Consulting 💡 Today's Code Name Key Points (Start of an Important Week): Although noise in tech stocks persists due to the surge in Chinese semiconductors and rumors of Nvidia's launch delay, the market has clearly entered a technical rebound phase following a historical decline of over 30%. Expectations for major events, such as the inflow of dollar funds following Samsung Electronics' preliminary earnings announcement (7th) and SK Hynix's US ADR listing (10th), are strengthening the market's downside resilience. As we are at the threshold where the "three-stage rule of massive return"—including foreign investors' futures purchases worth 6.82 trillion won—is being activated, investors should respond by confirming whether sectors with diversified supply and demand—such as cosmetics (Silicon 2), which is expected to record-high earnings in the second quarter driven by both Europe and North America, as well as securities, entertainment, and automobiles—hold bottom support, rather than reacting emotionally to daily index volatility. ⚔️ Supply & Demand Analysis Room 📈 ① Must Buy – Entertainment Kim Moon-seok: Expectations for K-defense export performance are rising again as the President’s attendance at the NATO Annual Summit approaches. Although stock prices had been trapped in a trading range due to the deepening supply and demand concentration on the two major semiconductor giants, the sector is emerging as a strong alternative as its earnings and growth momentum remain undeniably alive. Choi Soo-chang: Stock prices are being driven by expectations of solid second-quarter earnings, coupled with the strategy to target the NATO market, which accounts for 55% of global defense spending. In particular, depending on the results of the selection for Canada's next-generation submarine project, worth 60 trillion won and now in the countdown, this is a phase where synergies across the shipbuilding and defense industries are set to explode, coupled with strong global orders for LNG carriers and warships. 📉 ② Eight Pillars – Semiconductor Top Two + Materials, Parts, and Equipment (SoBuJang) Kim Moon-seok: Since May, the phenomenon of neglect in KOSPI small and medium-sized stocks and the KOSDAQ market as a whole has persisted as a chronic issue. In particular, the side effects of supply and demand distortions, such as the massive outflow of KOSDAQ funds following the listing of single-stock leverage ETFs for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, have dealt a direct blow. While easing valuation burdens and government policies are positive factors, a breakthrough must be identified. Choi Soo-chang: As supply and demand in the KOSDAQ have become tangled due to extreme concentration on large-cap semiconductor ETFs, investor sentiment regarding pharmaceutical and biotech stocks has been severely dampened relative to their fundamentals. For the biotech sector to be re-evaluated, the restoration of market confidence—including conditions for maintaining listing status—must come first; at this point, it is advantageous to focus on sectors such as cosmetics ODM and OEM, where export growth is certain. 📝 Tomorrow's Market iF Report ① Samsung Electronics: What if the 300,000 won mark is breached despite surprise earnings? (Further decline vs. opportunity to buy at a low price) – Kim Moon-seok Ahead of the announcement of record-breaking quarterly preliminary earnings tomorrow (the 7th), volatility may occur where "catalysts disappear," with short-term profit-taking selling pressure emerging immediately after the announcement of strong results. However, one must keep in mind that Samsung Electronics is expected to secure strong downside rigidity below 300,000 won. Since the fundamental strength of earnings and supply and demand is solid, any temporary dip should unconditionally be utilized as an opportunity to buy at a low price. ② What if the Samsung Electronics & SK Hynix ETFs are delisted? (Positive news for neglected individual stocks vs. semiconductors driven by earnings) – Choi Soo-chang Criticism is mounting from the Bank of Korea and political circles regarding the extreme concentration of investment in single-stock ETFs for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. If supply and demand distortions and the discrepancy in price fluctuations are resolved through regulations or reforms, it is highly likely to act as a powerful positive catalyst, driving capital into KOSDAQ individual stocks and small-to-mid-cap stocks that have been severely neglected until now. #MetaShock #AIOverinvestment #KOSPI8000Collapse #CircuitBreakerWarning #NPDInterestRateBalancing #Samsung...