Australia’s housing slowdown and the economic outlook | CommBank View

#CommBankView #AustralianEconomy #HousingMarket #RBA #AI Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank’s Belinda Allen and Joe Capurso about Australia’s housing-led economic slowdown, the outlook for RBA rate cuts, data centres, AI spending, oil prices and global trade risks. Belinda discusses why Australia’s economy is expected to slow, how housing could become the key drag, and what falling home prices may mean for consumer spending. She explains why the impact of earlier interest rate hikes and Budget tax changes is flowing through the housing market, why CommBank expects growth to slow from 2.5% at the end of 2025 to 1.5% by the end of 2026, and how possible RBA rate cuts in 2027 could help stabilise conditions. The conversation also covers the data centre build-out, AI investment, public sector spending, inflation, unemployment and business insolvencies. Mandy also speaks with Joe Capurso about oil prices after the Iran shock, elevated gas prices in Europe, maritime choke points, the Straits of Malacca, and the scale of US AI capital spending. Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:28 Why Australia’s economy may slow 00:48 Housing replaces oil as the key drag 01:19 Housing market deterioration after the Budget 01:35 Capital city housing trends 02:22 Housing, the wealth effect and growth forecasts 03:08 Could RBA rate cuts be the circuit breaker? 03:54 Will consumers pull back? 04:40 What CommBank spending data shows 05:26 Can data centres offset the slowdown? 06:12 Constraints on the data centre build-out 07:45 Is Australia overbuilding data centres? 07:57 Public sector spending shifts role 09:18 Why the RBA may wait on rate cuts 10:03 Labour market softness and unemployment 10:51 AI and the jobs market 11:36 Insolvencies and business conditions 12:22 Joe Capurso joins the show 13:07 Oil prices after the Iran shock 13:54 Elevated gas prices and Europe 14:44 Maritime choke points and geopolitics 16:19 Shipping costs, insurance and inflation 16:59 US AI spending and global spillovers 17:57 AI capex and US growth outlook 18:12 Which economies benefit from AI spending?