[통합본] '하이닉스가 삼성 넘으면 정점' 리포트의 저자: "반도체는 아직 안 끝났습니다"..지금의 강세장에서 오히려 사람들이 돈을 잃는 이유 / 교양이를 부탁해

*This content was recorded on July 6, 2026. Lee Jae-man, who accurately predicted the peak of the KOSPI, candidly discusses the process by which his "warning of a reversal by SK Hynix" came true, the basis for his view that the semiconductor bull market is not yet over, the reasons why people actually lose money in a bull market despite this, and why the first thing to decide in investing is not "how much to earn" but "how long to hold on." Lee Jae-man is the Head of Global Investment Analysis at Hana Securities Research Center and a strategist responsible for market outlook and strategy. In a report last May, he warned that "the bull market has reached its peak if SK Hynix's market capitalization surpasses that of Samsung Electronics." Indeed, on June 22, when Hynix overtook Samsung for the first time, the KOSPI hit an all-time high of 9,114 before plummeting by over 20%. His warning came true exactly as predicted. Now, however, he brings up the exact opposite perspective. Although the semiconductor sector collapsed amidst fears triggered by the Meta and anxiety over a "peak-out" spread, he assessed in a new report on the 10th that "the KOSPI has technically reached a complete bottom." Since 2023, the KOSPI has repeatedly followed a pattern of falling about 20% from its peak before rebounding; he argues that the current level is 7,290, which is 20% down from the recent high of 9,114. 📌Contributor: Lee Jae-man (Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center) Key Points of This Episode: ◼ The process by which the warning "the peak will occur when SK Hynix surpasses Samsung" actually came true ◼ Reasons why it is too early to view the current sharp decline as a "peak-out" (Capital recovery expected in Q1 next year) ◼ Diagnosis that the only signal that a bull market is truly ending is when semiconductor "profits" decline ◼ "Bull markets naturally drop by 20%" — Why individual stocks drop 30–40% when the index falls by 20% ◼ Why you must decide "how long to hold" first, rather than "how much to earn" ◼ The psychology behind why people end up buying at the "peak" in a bull market ◼ The true upper limit of the index as told by KOSPI net profit of 946 trillion won and historical PER ◼ Why contrarian investing does not work well, and why you should not compare your returns with others *This The investment information in this content is for reference only, and investment decisions and responsibilities lie solely with the individual. 00:00 Intro 01:24 From ExxonMobil to Nvidia… When the No. 1 Market Cap Changes, the Era Changes 02:39 SK Hynix Eyeing Samsung Electronics Is Not the End of the Bull Market, but a Signal of Overheating 03:50 Market Cap is 50%, but Profit is 70%… Evidence That Semiconductors Are Still Cheap 05:36 Why the Semiconductor Top Two Hold Up the KOSPI Even While Other Sectors Are Weak 06:25 Big Tech AI Investment: When Will Money Start Circulating? 08:05 Fear of Semiconductor Peak-out: The Real Time to Check Is Next Q3 09:13 Why Is a Correction After Samsung Electronics' Earnings Announcement a Buying Opportunity? 10:31 Rumors of SK Hynix Listing in the US: How High Can the Stock Price Be Pushed? 13:54 The Stronger the Market, the Greater the Shaking… Why a 20% Correction Is Possible 14:41 Is KOSPI 11,450 Possible? The Upper Limit Calculated Based on Earnings 16:58 Why Falling Short-Term Interest Rates Become Favorable for Semiconductor Growth Stocks 20:16 The Era of Only the M7 Rising in the US Has Ended… The Reason Sector Rotation Has Begun 22:01 Why Sector Rotation Is Not Easy for Korea Other Than Semiconductors 22:41 Why Alternatives Are Weak Even If Semiconductor Growth Slows Next Year 24:36 Why Are Foreign Investors Selling and Leaving While the KOSPI Is Rising? 26:57 Can the KOSPI Top Be Pushed Up Even Without Foreign Investors? 30:15 Why You Should Stay Within Leading Stocks Instead of Running Away in a Bear Market #PleaseTakeCareOfKyoyang #Semiconductor #KOSPI #SKHynix #SamsungElectronics #BullMarket #LeeJaeMan [Kyoyang Production Team] Brand & IP Director: Han Dong-hoon / Writers: Son Ye-won • Yoo Jin-kyung / Editing: Kim Cho-a • Hyun Seung-ho • Song Kyu-beom / Content Design: Ok Ji-soo • Choi Heung-rak / Filming: Park Woo-jin / Interns: Park Ji-min • Ahn Chae-won [Business Inquiries] Please Take Care of Kyoyang, Inquiries regarding appearances, sponsorships, and content: [email protected] Knowledge news that makes you smarter the more you listen, Kyoyang Please @sbs_explained Copyright Ⓒ SBS. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction, redistribution, and use for AI learning are prohibited.