쇼크가 호재로 'Bad is Good' 장세...코스피엔 위기일까 기회일까ㅣ윤여삼 메리츠증권 투자전략팀장

Market Insight (11:30 ~ 13:00) Monday, July 6, 2026 📊 Today's Market Key Summary Concerns about an economic slowdown have resurfaced as U.S. June non-farm payrolls fell significantly short of expectations. While the unemployment rate remains stable, a decline in the labor force and an increase in long-term unemployment have been confirmed, and slowing consumption and rising credit card delinquencies are emerging as burdens. On the other hand, expectations for a Fed interest rate cut appear to be reviving as inflationary pressure eases due to falling oil prices. We forecasted the U.S. economy and stock market for the second half of the year by examining the AI ​​investment cycle, Meta's changes in investment strategy, and the financing burdens faced by hyperscalers. 🎙 Guests Anchor Kim Ho-jeong Yoon Yeo-sam, Head of Investment Strategy Team, Meritz Securities 🔎 Key Points 1️⃣ U.S. Employment Slowdown Begins in Earnest… A Signal for Fed Policy Change? June Non-Farm Employment Growth Half Expected Rise in Long-Term Unemployed and Recurring Unemployment Claims Partially Reflecting Impact of AI Industry Restructuring Potential for Labor Market Slowdown to Intensify in the Second Half 2️⃣ Slowing Consumption and Rising Delinquencies… Warning Signs for the U.S. Economy Real Wages Remain in Negative Credit Card and Auto Loan Delinquency Rates at Highest Level Since Financial Crisis Wealth Effect Limited by Real Estate Price Adjustments Potential for Slowing Consumption to Lead to Further Decline in Growth Rate 3️⃣ Is the AI ​​Investment Bubble? Interpretation of Meta Strategy Shift *Amplified Concerns Over AI Investment Due to Meta's Idle Computing Rental* *Potential for Investment Efficiency Rather Than Termination of AI Investment* *Surge in Hyperscaler Corporate Bond Issuance* *Future Earnings Announcements and Additional Investment Plans Are Key Variables* 4️⃣ *Assessment of Risks in Private Debt and Corporate Bond Markets* *Expansion of the private debt market and heightened credit risk* *Increased interest rate burden due to rising corporate bond issuance* *Deepening polarization between BBB and CCC ratings in the high-yield market* *Potential for Financial System Contagion Remains Limited* 5️⃣ *The Fed and Investment Strategy for the Second Half* *Easing Inflationary Pressure Due to Falling Oil Prices* *Expectations for Fed Rate Cuts if Economic Slowdown Confirmed in Q3* *Maintaining Outlook for One Rate Cut This Year* *Possibility of a 'Bad is Good' Phase Where the Economic Slowdown Acts Positively for the Stock Market* 💡 *Conclusion* The key variables for the global market in the second half are U.S. employment and consumption, the timing of the Fed's rate cuts, and whether AI investment will continue. While short-term volatility may increase, considering AI-driven structural growth and expectations for monetary policy easing, an investment strategy focused on high-quality semiconductors and AI infrastructure remains valid. #KOSPI #KOSDAQ #Semiconductor #SamsungElectronics #SKHynix #NVIDIA #JensenHuang #SpaceX #IPO #InterestRate #CPI #FOMC #ExchangeRate #OilPrice #AI #MarketInsight #KimHoJung #YoonYeoSam #MacroInsight #InvestmentStrategy #USEmployment #NonFarmEmployment #Fed #RateCut #USStockMarket #NASDAQ #Meta #Hyperscaler #PrivateDebt #CorporateBonds #CreditCardDelinquency #LongTermUnemployment #RealWages #StrongDollar #FXMarket #AIInvestment #HBM #DataCenter #Recession #BigTech ────────────────────────── 🎯 Investment decisions are all about information. Check out fast and accurate key information now on the official Korea Economic TV Telegram. 🎁 Free Subscription 👉 https://t.me/wowtv_official ────────────────────────── △ Watch the Korean economy! △ We deliver fast and accurate economic and stock market news 24 hours a day. △ Subscribe + Like! ────────────────────────── ◇ Korea Economic TV Official Channels & Business YouTube Subscribe: https://bit.ly/45pz6GK YouTube LIVE:    • Video   Collaboration & Business Inquiries: [email protected] ────────────────────────── ◇ Korea Economic TV Website: http://www.wowtv.co.kr Kakao Plus Friend: https://pf.kakao.com/_xbcxlxgd Twitter:   / hkwowtv   Facebook:   / hkwowtv   Program Schedule: https://bit.ly/47q2caY ─────────────────────────── ◆ Subscribe to the Korea Economic TV Family Channels! News: [Hankyung TV News]    / 한국경제tv뉴스   Stocks: [Money Farm Korea Economic TV]    / @hkmoneyfarm   Stock App: [Korea Economic TV Crypto]    / @hktv_crypto   Education: [Wow Academy] https://wowacademy.wownet.co.kr/ Global: [Wow Global] https://www.wowglobal.co.kr/ Real-time Investment Information: [Wow Quick] https://www.wowquick.co.kr/ ────────────────────────── ※ If the screen appears blurry or pixelated, please select 1080p quality in the s...