Driving Alpha - Why you can't vibe-code a factory with Julian Counihan (Schematic Ventures)

🔔 Subscribe to the Driving Alpha podcast for more episodes with top investors sharing their strategies to outperform the market! 🔔 What does it take to identify a multi-decade investment category before the rest of venture capital even considers it viable? Julian Counihan launched Schematic Ventures in 2017 to back Physical AI and supply chain technology when the space was widely considered uninvestable — and spent the years since building factory-floor relationships and writing first checks in companies like Altana, Flock Freight, Harbinger, and Platform Science. In this conversation, Brian Smiga and Julian trace the early conviction behind fund one — from Altana’s disruption of supply chain data to Harbinger’s Class 6 electric truck, arguably one of the most capital-intensive pre-seed bets in hard tech. They dig into what separates fundable capital-intensive businesses from those that aren’t: a sophisticated financial plan that accounts for asset-backed financing, vendor credit, and multi-year working capital needs. Julian also explains how he counsels founders who raised at peak valuations in 2020–21 to think about budget discipline across a full cycle. The conversation also covers Julian’s hands-on return to daily coding with AI agents, and why he believes the magic of tools like Claude Code comes from the harness — the software architecture wrapping the model — not the underlying model alone. Plus: a clear-eyed view of humanoid robotics, why Physical AI is attracting investors who are really escaping uncertainty in software, and what it means for a space when everyone suddenly becomes a tourist in your neighborhood. Episode Host: Alpha Partners This episode is brought to you by Alpha Partners, an NYC-based growth equity firm managing $300 million. Alpha co-invests in top-tier growth equity companies led by the world’s best investors. We focus on scaling and late-stage tech investment opportunities primarily in the essential technology sector, including e-commerce, enterprise software, fintech, edtech, and health IT. To learn how we can help you with your funding goals, visit https://www.alphapartners.com, or email us at [email protected]. Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn: 00:00 Welcome and Introductions 00:41 Origin of Schematic Thesis 02:03 Moving to San Francisco 03:40 First Checks in Supply Chain 05:13 Vibe Coding and AI Agents 09:58 Fund Three Edge in Physical AI 13:36 Hardware Software Investment Mix 14:31 Tourists and New Capital 16:24 Capex and Financing Reality 18:50 Valuations and Cycle Discipline 20:41 Humanoid Robots Reality Check 22:47 SpaceX and Liquidity Thoughts 24:18 Next Magic Moments in AI 27:47 Model Costs and Subsidies 28:59 Closing Thanks and Wrap