Thucydides Trap: Why Rising Powers Always End in War | Prof Jiang Xueqin

What happens when the world's most powerful nation meets the world's fastest-rising one? History has a troubling answer — and it almost always ends in war. In this video, we break down the Thucydides Trap: the 2,400-year-old pattern identified by ancient Greek historian Thucydides and revived by Harvard political scientist Graham Allison — who found that in 12 out of 16 historical cases where a rising power challenged a ruling one, the result was war. We examine how this pattern applies to the most consequential rivalry of the 21st century — the United States and China — and why analysts believe this decade may be the most decisive in determining whether the world escapes the trap or falls into it. In this video: The original Thucydides Trap and the Peloponnesian War China's military and economic rise under Xi Jinping US Indo-Pacific strategy, Taiwan, and the semiconductor war The security dilemma, credibility trap, and why de-escalation is so difficult Three future scenarios: best case, most likely, and worst case This is not fearmongering. This is serious geopolitical analysis — grounded in history, strategic logic, and the decisions being made right now in Washington and Beijing. Watch to the end. The conclusion may change how you think about the next decade. Topics covered: Thucydides Trap, US China relations, China rise, Taiwan conflict, Graham Allison, Indo-Pacific strategy, great power competition, geopolitics 2024, US China war, international security, world order