Krank ab Tag 1: Warum bald ALLE wochenlang fehlen werden!

Reform: In the future, a doctor's certificate will be required from the first day of illness. Will this likely reduce the number of short-term sick leave certificates, or will it backfire? How could the situation have been optimized from a game-theoretical perspective? ►If you would like to receive my article on this topic, simply subscribe here: https://www.rieck-verlag.de/info-liste ►The study mentioned: A fine is a price: https://www.ius.uzh.ch/dam/jcr%3Aed3f... -------------------------- STOP: Please do not send emails to my university email address! This address is exclusively for official business. ►Would you like to become a channel member? I'm excited:    / @profrieck   -------------------------- ►MORE INFORMATION FROM TEAM RIECK: The requirement for a doctor's note from the first day of illness is causing quite a stir. But what's happening beneath the surface from a game-theoretical perspective? We're dealing with a classic principal-agent problem here. The problem: The boss (principal) doesn't know how the employee (agent) is really feeling or what they're doing at home. Politicians are now trying to make "playing hooky" less attractive by increasing transaction costs. Anyone who wants to take a day off has to accept the penalty of endless waiting in the waiting room. But people are surprisingly rational utility maximizers. If an employee has to sacrifice hours at the doctor's office, then this "investment" has to be worthwhile. The marginal benefit must exceed the marginal cost. The result: Instead of calling in sick for a single day, people call in sick for the entire week. We're witnessing the infamous cobra effect: The measure intended to prevent a single day of absence suddenly breeds weeks of absences. The problem isn't solved; it's exacerbated. At the same time, there are other pitfalls. If you try to make absences financially impactful, for example, through unpaid leave, you suddenly turn a moral hurdle into a simple price list. The employee thinks, "Okay, this will cost me money today, but I'll just buy myself this day off!" The guilty conscience disappears, and the penalty becomes a legitimate fee. You might recognize this pattern from IT security! The administrator forces all employees to use incredibly complex passwords that must be changed weekly. The hurdle becomes so high that people write their passwords on Post-it notes and stick them to their monitors. This strict enforcement provokes a workaround that ultimately makes the system far less secure than before. Added to this is a massive illusion of control. Politicians believe that involving a doctor solves the problem of inadequate oversight. But doctors have no incentive to be strict or to confront patients. The doctor's note loses its medical value and becomes a mere formality (Goodhart's Law). Moreover, this creates a prevention paradox: we burden 98% of the genuinely ill with high costs, just to catch the few bad apples. Whether this approach is ultimately beneficial is an empirical question. A game-theoretically optimized solution would be mechanism design. Instead of pointless controls, we could design contracts so that employees reveal their own behavior. We could offer various contracts from which employees can choose: for example, a salary bonus for those who voluntarily accept a few unpaid days off. Those who never call in sick anyway will gladly accept this bonus. The cheaters will thus reveal themselves. The signal is imitation-proof. ------------------------ Note: The links provided may be affiliate links, for which I receive a commission. Thank you for using these links! Disclaimer: This is an educational channel, not a financial or medical channel. The content of my videos and podcasts is for general information purposes only and does not constitute financial or medical advice, nor is it a personal recommendation. Please always consult multiple independent sources and seek professional advice before making any decisions, especially regarding investments or medicine. The opinions expressed do not constitute a call to action. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell any kind of asset, including securities or tangible assets. It is also not a recommendation for any form of self-treatment or self-diagnosis. Please take these disclaimers seriously. #profrieck #pensionreform #sickleave