なぜ日本人は結婚しなくなったのか。1972年109万→2023年47万、結婚から遠ざけた4法則

The number of marriages fell from 1.09 million in 1972 to 470,000 in 2023, the first time it has fallen below 500,000 since the end of World War II. The unmarried rate at age 50 is 28% for men and 18% for women, a reality of one in three people being unmarried. This is not due to ethnicity or a shift in values, but rather the result of the sum of the four economic laws predicted 60 years ago by family economics and matching theory reaching their full potential. ▼ Chapter Outline 00:00 Prologue | Wedding Venues That Disappeared from Train Stations 02:32 Chapter 1: The Number Cliff – Marriages Have Halved in Half a Century 04:54 Chapter 2: The Economics of Marriage – Becker Models Marriage Economically 08:10 Chapter 3: The Shackles of Uncertainty – Oppenheimer's Delay Theory 11:22 Chapter 4: The Collapse of the Market – Upward Marriage and the Limitations of Matching Theory 14:40 Chapter 5: The Single-Person Society – A Country Where You Can Get Off, Where the Market Replaces Family 17:13 Epilogue | What Will You Choose, and What Will You Get Off? ▼ Main References ・Becker, G.S. 1973 "A Theory of Marriage: Part I" Journal of Political Economy 81(4) ・Oppenheimer, V.K. 1988 "A Theory of Marriage Timing" American Journal of Sociology 94 • Gale, D. & Shapley, L.S. 1962 "College Admissions and the Stability of Marriage" American Mathematical Monthly 69(1) • Easterlin, R.A. 1976 "Population, Labor Force, and Long Swings in Economic Growth" Demography 13(4) ▼ Statistical Sources • Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare "Vital Statistics" (2024 Final Figures) • Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications "National Census" (2020, Supplementary Figures) • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research "The 16th Basic Survey on Fertility Trends" (2021) • National Tax Agency "Statistics on the Actual Status of Private Sector Salaries" • Cabinet Office "White Paper on Gender Equality" • Agency for Children and Families "Current Situation and Challenges Regarding Marriage" (2024) #JapaneseSociety #Marriage #SocialPsychology