Tropical Storm Bertha Likely: Texas Impacts Possible Late Week

Tropical Depression Two has formed in the northeastern Gulf and is likely to become Tropical Storm Bertha as it moves west along the northern Gulf Coast. The system could approach Louisiana around Wednesday or Thursday before moving toward Texas Thursday night into Friday. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding its exact track, organization, strength, and eventual rainfall impacts. The system remains disorganized, with wind shear and some dry air limiting its development for now. Rapid intensification is not currently the expected outcome, but the forecast could change if the circulation moves farther offshore into a more favorable environment. The track will determine whether Texas experiences: • Mainly coastal wind and marine impacts • Heavy rain along the Upper Texas Gulf Coast • Rain spreading into South or Central Texas • Renewed flooding concerns in recently affected areas • Most of the heavier rain remaining east or south of Texas The earliest reasonable arrival of stronger wind gusts along the Upper Texas Gulf Coast could be late Wednesday evening. Coastal impacts may include: • Dangerous rip currents • Rough surf and elevated seas • Coastal flooding • Gusty winds • Periods of heavy rain The rainfall forecast is especially important because parts of Central Texas, the Hill Country, South Texas, and the Coastal Plains are still dealing with water moving through rivers and drainage basins following last week’s flooding. It is too early to determine whether the heaviest tropical rain will reach those recently flooded areas. A farther-south track could bring more rain into the middle or lower Texas coast and South Texas, while a farther-north track may keep the greatest totals closer to Louisiana or the Upper Texas Gulf Coast. Anyone claiming precise Texas rainfall totals or impact locations several days in advance is getting ahead of the available forecast confidence. For the next few days, most of Texas will remain hot and humid with limited widespread storm activity. Rain chances may increase along the coast and across portions of the southern half of Texas from Wednesday night through Friday. Residents along the Texas coast—and farther inland—should begin monitoring the forecast. No panic or hurricane shopping spree is needed. Check your normal supplies, review your weather alerts, and keep up with forecast changes. Interactive radar: https://texasstormchasers.com/radar Free forecasts, radar, alerts, and video updates are available through the Texas Storm Chasers mobile app. Chapters: 0:00 Tropical mischief develops in the Gulf 0:30 Sunday afternoon Texas Weather Roundup 0:41 Tropical Depression Two forms 1:17 Why the system is moving west 1:46 Current organization and limiting factors 2:04 National Hurricane Center forecast 2:31 Possible arrival near Louisiana and Texas 2:43 Why the exact track matters 3:08 Could this become a hurricane? 4:14 Why forecast confidence remains limited 4:38 Earliest arrival of stronger winds 4:59 Rip currents and coastal flooding concerns 5:16 What this could mean for Texas rainfall 5:48 Recently flooded areas remain vulnerable 6:03 Possible Texas track scenarios 6:26 Texas weather over the next several days 7:02 What Texans should do now #TexasWeather #TropicalStorm #TexasStormChasers