How to find FRAUDS in the NBA

#nba People get way too excited about certain teams when they go on a win streak and then immediately turn on them when they hit a skid. NBA discourse is driven almost entirely by recency bias. Not long ago everyone was hyping the Bulls, praising Josh Giddey’s playmaking, and acting like Nikola Vucevic was a lock for clutch player of the year. Then the moment the Bulls slipped below five hundred the narrative flipped back to them being terrible. The signs were there when you looked at how poorly their opponents were shooting from three. Maybe the Bulls were contesting everything, and they do lead the league in contested shots, but it was far more likely their opponents were just missing. Even Vucevic basically said that. Still, the Bulls were winning, so enjoy it. The Raptors went on their own run and everyone started glazing them, but even while writing this the hype cooled after losses to the Knicks and Hornets. Before that they had a nine game winning streak where suddenly Brandon Ingram was being talked about as an All NBA player again. The problem is the schedule was weak. They barely beat the Pacers, got an impressive win over a healthy Cavs team, but the rest were wins against the Nets, Wizards, Hornets, Sixers, and more Cavs and Pacers games. Nine wins help your record, but people acted like their 1 and 4 start and the rumors of Darko being fired never happened. Strength of schedule matters before judging how good a team really is. Point differential matters too. A team can have a great record while barely scraping by weaker opponents. OKC has the best margin in the league and they are blowing teams out routinely, even sitting their starters for most fourth quarters. Meanwhile the Lakers have a top five record but sit around fourteenth in point differential. They win, but never dominate, while the Timberwolves are behind them in wins yet far better in scoring margin. Minnesota looks real and the Lakers look like frauds. Some players look fraudulent too. Michael Porter Jr is putting up All Star level numbers on the Nets with big scoring nights and good efficiency, but the Nets have no offensive options with Cam Thomas out. Someone has to score and MPJ is the only real option. His usage is inflated and a desperate team might talk themselves into believing he is a true twenty five point scorer. Competitive teams probably will not fall for it. There are also players who look fraudulently bad. Desmond Bane is shooting poorly from three even though he was one of the best shooters in the league for years. He is adjusting to an offense without real spacing threats since Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, and Jalen Suggs are not shooters. Bane has expanded his two point game, become a better creator, and is still dangerous when open. His shot will come back and he should finish the season near forty percent again. When people call a team a good regular season team it feels disrespectful even though often it is true. The Cavs had a sixty four win season and still no one believed in them because they kept failing in the playoffs. Fraud teams are the ones that cannot deliver when it matters. Playoff rotations shrink and depth matters less, so teams with elite starters and weaker benches often outperform deeper squads. As for the biggest frauds in NBA history, people mention Karl Malone, Carmelo, and James Harden, but the real answer might be Steve Nash. He won two MVPs, is praised as one of the smartest point guards ever, and even got a head coaching job without experience. Yet he never made the Finals and his scoring was modest, especially in 2005 when he averaged fifteen and a half points and was not a defender. Even in 2006 when he averaged eighteen and a half, his numbers did not match someone like LeBron. It still feels strange that Nash has two MVPs while Kobe and Shaq each have one.