#30 Dave Snowden - Complexity on One Slide

What is “Complexity on one slide?” Glad you asked. It’s taken a couple of decades, but a lot of things have started to come together in what Dave Snowden terms anthro-complexity or naturalizing sense-making. Combining Deleuzian Epistemology, Constructor theory from Physics, and Complexity Science will hopefully provide a coherent and easy-to-understand picture of the field. There were always interesting elements, but now they are linked. In this session, Dave will outline the approach and, as a part of that, dive deeper into Estuarine Mapping, which has taken off a lot faster than expected. Having completed that, he will apply the thinking to current dilemmas and opportunities around what is called AI. Are we moving to a world where only the hyper-rich are allowed to know what is true or false? Is creating a dependency on Chat GBT and the like a threat to human intelligence - dumbing us down to the level where we can be out-competed? Dave Snowden Dave is the founder and Chief Scientific Officer of The Cynefin Company (formerly known as Cognitive Edge) and the founder and Director of the Centre for Applied Complexity at the University of Wales. His work has been focused on looking at complex issues relating to strategy and organizational decision-making. He has pioneered a science-based approach to complex organizational issues - drawing on anthropology, neuroscience, and complex adaptive systems theory. Timestamps 00:00:00 Intro 00:01:29 Opening Remarks 00:04:38 Getting to Here (background) 00:10:56 The Use of Assemblage Theory 00:12:13 Complexity's not about causality, it's about patterns 00:19:03 Constructor Theory (& Counterfactuals) 00:22:00 Estuarine Framework - Theory 00:26:15 Estuarine Framework - Mapping 00:29:09 Estuarine Framework - Actions 00:34:01 Talking with C-level Executives 00:38:58 Distributed Decision-making (4E) 00:43:52 Schools of Complexity 00:46:40 Group Discussion 00:47:03 QA - Energy Gradients 00:51:37 QA - Objects & Agency in Western Cultures 00:54:42 QA - Regulators & Auditability 00:58:25 QA - Change Happens at the Micro Level 01:00:48 QA - Corporate Acquisitions 01:03:03 QA - Alicia Comments 1 01:10:57 QA - Wisdom of Crowds 01:12:57 QA - Alicia Comments 2 01:17:58 QA - Scaffolding 01:23:40 QA - Adjacent From or Adjacent To 01:27:46 QA - Why Estuarine? 01:33:42 QA - Teaching International Strategic Management 01:40:41 QA - Identity, Assemblage, & Deterritorialization 01:47:43 Final Thoughts 01:48:35 Summary Find Dave The Cynefin Co: https://thecynefin.co/team/dave-snowden/ LinkedIn:   / dave-snowden-2a93b   Slides Presentation Slides: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JZca... References Assemblage theory: https://cynefin.io/wiki/Assemblage_th... Deterritorialization: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterri... Estuarine Framework: https://cynefin.io/wiki/Estuarine_fra... Triopticon: https://cynefin.io/wiki/Triopticon The "Adjacent Possible" - Stuart Kauffman (TED):    • The "Adjacent Possible" – and How It Expla...   Constructor Theory: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constru... What Is Constructor Theory - https://www.constructortheory.org/wha... Constructor Theory - David Deutsch (2012): https://arxiv.org/pdf/1210.7439 Design Unbound: Designing for Emergence in a White Water World, Vol 1: https://direct.mit.edu/books/book/415... The Science of Can and Can't - A Physicist's Journey Through the Land of Counterfactuals - Chiara Marletto (2022): https://www.google.com/books/edition/... Constructor Theory of Life - Chiara Marletto (2014): https://www.constructortheory.org/wp-... Extended Mind Thesis: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extende... Obliquity, Why Our Goals are Best Achieved Indirectly - John Anderson Kay (2010): https://www.google.com/books/edition/... Notes & Quotes 4E - As described by Mark Rowlands, mental processes are: • Embodied involves more than the brain, including a more general involvement of bodily structures and processes. • Embedded functioning only in a related external environment. • Enacted involving not only neural processes but also things an organism does. • Extended into the organism's environment. "Old men are philosophers, old wives tell tales." - Beth Smith "Complexity is not about causality, it's about patterns." - Dave (12:13) "How do you make the energy cost of 'Sin' higher than the energy cost of 'Virtue'?" - Dave (33:49) Complex systems scale by decomposition (to the lowest level of coherent granularity) and then through recombination.