O que Esperar do Mercado do Café? Preços, Clima e Projeções para as Próximas Safras.

If you thought the coffee market had seen it all, the week ending July 10th came to break historical records. According to official charts from the TradingView platform, the highest volatility in the sector's history was recorded, with the September contract marking an impressive 16% increase in a single day. But the big question that remains is: what is behind this price rollercoaster and what lies ahead? To understand the magnitude of the problem, international reports from the Global Coffee Report are already sounding a red alert for the historic delay in harvesting and the advance of so-called 'rained coffee', which directly threatens the quality of the beverage and your income, coffee grower. The long-term scenario becomes even more complex: INMET (National Institute of Meteorology) has just projected the consolidation of a strong El Niño from August 2026, bringing the real risk of extreme drought and high temperatures to the main producing regions of the country. Today, we will cross-reference this official data with exclusive projections from economist Haroldo Bonfá, of Pharos Consultoria, to understand how this entire climatic and financial set of factors will reshape expectations for the 27/28 harvest. A new weather alert puts Brazil on high alert: the "Super El Niño" phenomenon has a 90% chance of extending until the beginning of 2027, bringing with it an intensity rarely seen in recent decades. With the warming of the Pacific Ocean waters potentially reaching up to 3 degrees above average, experts predict a scenario of extreme weather events that challenges agribusiness and national infrastructure, alternating between severe droughts and wildfires in the North-Central region, and torrential rains in the South and Southeast, with direct impacts on food production and public health. Gabriel Brum brings the information, live from Rádio Nacional.