Debt Consolidation in History - Financial History Lecture by Rui Esteves

Recording of the Financial History Lecture by Professor Rui Esteves (Professor of International Economics and International History at the Geneva Graduate Institute) held in the context of the 9th Goethe University Visiting Professorship of Financial History* (30 January 2025). ________________________________________________________________________________________________ A jointly organized event of the Institute for Banking and Financial History (IBF), the Leibniz Institute SAFE, the Center for Financial Studies (CFS) and the House of Finance (HoF). With a welcoming address by Prof. Rainer Klump, Director CFS and House of Finance, Goethe University. Moderated by Michael Klaus, Chairman of the IBF. *The Visiting Professorship of Financial History is endowed by Metzler Bank and the Friedrich Flick Förderungsstiftung. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ THE LECTURE The Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic bequeathed large increases in public debt worldwide. At some point governments may seek to bring down these elevated debt-to-GDP ratios - including by inflating part of it. In this lecture, I will explore the evidence from a panel of debt consolidation episodes spanning 220 years and 183 nations to qualify how nations have successfully consolidated their debts in the past. The evidence confirms that inflation facilitated large consolidations but not in expected ways. Successful debt consolidations were not typical of periods of runaway inflation. On the contrary, the largest concentration of debt consolidations coincided with periods of relatively low and stable inflation in the context of credible monetary policies and sound fiscal policies. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ THE SPEAKER Rui Esteves, Professor of International Economics and International History at the Geneva Graduate Institute since 2018 and CEPR Economic History Program Director, is a specialist in monetary and financial history with a particular interest in international finance, institutional economics and public finance. His research and teaching covers fields such as the history of the global financial system, financial crises, sovereign debt, payments and capital flows, financial markets micro-infrastructure and corruption in public office. He has received several awards and grants and has shared his academic expertise not only as a sought-after (keynote) speaker at a vast number of international academic conferences but also as an editor and referee of renowned economic history journals. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ chapters: 0:00 Intro 0:28 Indroduction by Professor Rainer Klump (Director CFS and House of Finance, Goethe University) 3:22 Lecture Professor Rui Esteves 1:16:15 Q&A