The October Deal That Almost Happened — And Who Killed It

On July 3rd 2026 — two days after the CUSMA non-renewal deadline passed — US Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra sat down with CBC's Ottawa Morning and said something no American official had said publicly in fourteen months of negotiations. "It's already taken 14 months and we haven't seen significant progress." Fourteen months. Significant progress. The words of Washington's own representative in Ottawa, on the record, about the state of the most consequential trade relationship in North American history. But the story does not start on July 3rd. According to verified reporting by BNN Bloomberg and The Deep Dive, there was an October 2025 deal that Hoekstra described as covering five critical areas — oil, uranium, auto parts, steel, and aluminum. A deal Hoekstra said the president was "excited about." A deal that, by Hoekstra's own account, was reached "fairly quickly at 30,000 feet" between Carney and Trump during an October meeting in Washington. That deal never happened. And according to Hoekstra, the reason it collapsed was a 75 million dollar American ad campaign run by Ontario Premier Doug Ford's government in October 2025 — featuring the voice of former President Ronald Reagan attacking tariffs. Trump saw the ad. Trade negotiations with Canada were terminated indefinitely. The almost-deal evaporated. In this documentary analysis, we walk through exactly what Hoekstra said, what the October deal actually was, who benefits and who loses from continued stalemate, what 14 months of failed negotiations actually costs ordinary Canadians and Americans in their grocery bills and paychecks, and what three distinct future scenarios look like for the relationship going into the fall. Sources: CBC News July 3 2026, BNN Bloomberg July 3 2026, BNN Bloomberg June 23 2026, The Deep Dive July 2 2026, Radio-Canada July 3 2026, Newstalk 580 CFRA July 3 2026. #hoekstra #cusma #canada #trump #markcarney #dougford #tradewar #canadausa #july2026 #usmca #cusmanegotiations #canadatrade #americanambassador #geopolitics #breakingnews