What Could Shape Arizona's 2026 Monsoon Season?

The 2026 monsoon season is approaching, and early climate indicators are beginning to provide clues about what Arizona could experience in the months ahead. In this Monsoon Outlook, the Flood Control District of Maricopa County reviews current seasonal outlooks, climate patterns and forecast guidance that may influence rainfall, temperatures and storm activity across central Arizona. Topics include: • Seasonal precipitation outlooks • Temperature trends heading into summer • Large-scale climate influences, including ENSO conditions • Historical context and analog years • What residents should watch for as monsoon season approaches While seasonal outlooks cannot predict specific storms, they can help provide context for the upcoming season and support preparedness efforts. The Flood Control District encourages residents to stay informed throughout monsoon season, understand local flood risks and have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. For flood safety information, alerts and weather resources, visit Maricopa.gov/Monsoon