"Iran's Supreme Leader Just Called for Attacks on Americans Worldwide" | Robert Pape

The war with Iran is back on — and Robert Pape says we're now knocking on the door of the most dangerous stage of the conflict yet. This week, Pape breaks down why Iran's Supreme Leader just called for revenge attacks on Americans anywhere in the world, why that statement echoes the 30-year-old fatwa against Salman Rushdie, and why Trump may be out of exit ramps short of a major escalation. In this episode: 🎯 Why Pape says we're "knocking on the door" of Stage Three of the escalation trap 💥 The parallel between the Supreme Leader's statement and the fatwa against Salman Rushdie 🌍 Why Pape expects inspired, not command-directed, attacks on Americans and perceived supporters worldwide 🛢️ Why the MOU failed to stop the oil drawdown — and Trump's "Herbert Hoover" problem ⚔️ The historical parallel Pape draws to Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbor ☢️ Why Pape thinks a nuclear strike remains unlikely in the near term 📅 Why Pape has been saying to prepare for this war extending into 2027 Timestamps: 00:00 Cold open 00:34 The war is back on — budgeting for 2027 01:23 Recap: the three stages of the escalation trap 03:53 Why punishment campaigns and the MOU failed 07:03 450 targets hit in the last week — what stage three looks like 09:05 Punishment creates revenge: millions in the streets 10:05 The Supreme Leader's call for global attacks on Americans 13:42 Inspired vs. command-directed terrorism — the ISIS parallel 16:29 Debunking the Cuban Missile Crisis "blockade worked" myth 20:00 Why this Supreme Leader statement is different from past rhetoric 23:47 Timeline: why Pape has been saying "prepare for January" 26:04 Trump's choice: Herbert Hoover or Lyndon Johnson 28:20 The nuclear question — why Pape doesn't see it happening yet Robert Pape is a Professor at the University of Chicago and one of the leading scholars on coercion, airpower, and political violence. Read his ongoing analysis on Substack, The Escalation Trap: 👉 https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ This is our weekly recurring conversation tracking the Iran war in real time — subscribe so you don't miss next week's update. #Iran #RobertPape #EscalationTrap #Trump #NationalSecurity #Geopolitics #Terrorism #WarWithIran