[반도체 AI 로봇] 새로운 시대, 새로운 가치 (SK증권 한동희 연구원)ㅣBest Analyst 2026 하반기 산업전망 세미나

This is the lecture video for the Best Analyst Invitational 2026 Second Half Industry Outlook Seminar. ※ KIRS Telegram Channel: https://t.me/kirsofficial 1. Memory Semiconductors in the AI ​​Era: Structural Bottlenecks and Revaluation (0:25 - 2:48) The key keyword for the memory semiconductor market is **'revaluation'**. The 'Memory Wall' phenomenon, where computational power for AI performance enhancement develops rapidly while memory development remains slow, is expected to persist structurally. Memory has now shifted its status from a simple component to a strategic asset that determines the AI ​​roadmap. 2. The Memory Boom is the 'New Normal' (2:51 - 6:23) In the past, the memory industry followed cycles sensitive to the macroeconomic environment and interest rates. However, this current AI cycle is a phenomenon resulting from structural changes in demand. We analyze that high profit generation capabilities will become the 'New Normal' rather than a temporary cycle. 3. Long-term Supply Contracts and the Dual Market Effect (6:27 - 10:59) As highly binding long-term supply contracts spanning 3 to 5 years have become commonplace, stable growth in the memory semiconductor industry has become possible. A *'dual market effect'* has emerged, dividing the market into priority markets like HBM and general markets, creating a structure that maximizes earnings resilience against market fluctuations. 4. HBM Profitability and Incentives for Expansion (11:04 - 13:51) An increase in HBM prices is essential. Since the production opportunity cost is higher compared to general DRAM, HBM prices are projected to rise by more than 50% by 2027 compared to this year. 5. Valuation Re-evaluation and Shareholder Returns (13:54 - 21:24) We must abandon the past standards of evaluating the industry as a cyclical sector and now transition to earnings-based PER valuations. SK Hynix’s shareholder return policy (up to 50% of free cash flow) and other measures will serve as a catalyst for resolving the chronic discount in the Korean memory semiconductor industry. In conclusion, we emphasize that current valuations of memory semiconductors are very low, and a full-scale revaluation is just beginning.